Table 3.
Posterior estimates of % change in health effect outcome associated with an IQRa increase in traffic (left) or BC (right)
|
S T R U C T U R A L E Q U A T I O N M O D E L (SEM) |
B A Y E S I A N L I N E A R M I X E D M O D E L (BLMM) |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exposure/ Outcome | Moving average | % change in mean | 95% PI | Posterior probability | Exposure/ Outcome | Moving average | % change in mean | 95% PI | Posterior probability |
| Traffic/ |
4-hr |
0.1 |
(−19.0, 25.0) |
0.50c |
BC/ |
4-hr |
−4.8 |
(−14.8, 6.3) |
0.81e |
| Para- |
24-hr |
3.2 |
(−19.4, 32.2) |
0.40c |
HFd |
24-hr |
−6.9 |
(−16.9, 4.5) |
0.89e |
| sympathetic |
48-hr |
−3.0 |
(−24.7, 25.4) |
0.59c |
|
48-hr |
−3.7 |
(−13.9, 7.9) |
0.74e |
| toneb |
72-hr |
2.8 |
(−19.2, 29.1) |
0.40c |
|
72-hr |
−2.9 |
(−13.5, 8.9) |
0.70e |
| Traffic/ |
4-hr |
6.6 |
(−6.7, 21.8) |
0.83g |
BC/ |
4-hr |
10.1 |
(3.0, 17.6) |
0.99i |
| LF/HFf |
24-hr |
7.2 |
(−8.0, 25.1) |
0.82g |
LF/HFh |
24-hr |
6.5 |
(−0.7, 14.2) |
0.96i |
| |
48-hr |
6.4 |
(−9.5, 24.3) |
0.78g |
|
48-hr |
4.7 |
(−2.3, 12.2) |
0.89i |
| 72-hr | 7.1 | (−9.3, 26.0) | 0.80g | 72-hr | 2.7 | (−4.2, 10.1) | 0.78i | ||
aInterquartile range (IQR): 4-hr = 0.88; 24-hr = 0.52; 48-hr = 0.43; 72-hr = 0.36.
bSEM: effect of traffic pollution on parasympathetic tone.
cPosterior probability that γ 1 < 0.
dBLMM: effect of black carbon on HF.
ePosterior probability that β 1 < 0.
fSEM: effect of traffic pollution on LF/HF.
gPosterior probability that δ 1 > 0.
hBLMM: effect of black carbon on LF/HF.
iPosterior probability that ρ 1 > 0.