Table 3.
Comparison of the Base Run (100% Four-Year Grants) with the Optimized Grant Durations Under Two Scenarios of Realistic and Prescient Optimal Solutions
| Year
|
Outcome variables
|
||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | y | Euphoria (%) | Hangover (%) |
| 1 Base run | 0.55 | 80 | −31 | ||||||||||
| 3-year (%) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| 4-year (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 5-year (%) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| 2 Realistic optimum | 0.41 | 80 | −2 | ||||||||||
| 3-year (%) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | |||
| 4-year (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 66 | 91 | 97 | 95 | 99 | 97 | |||
| 5-year (%) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |||
| 3 Prescient optimum | 0.12 | 23 | −1 | ||||||||||
| 3-year (%) | 23 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |||
| 4-year (%) | 71 | 92 | 94 | 82 | 72 | 97 | 99 | 98 | 99 | 99 | |||
| 5-year (%) | 6 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |||
Note. The bold values are estimated through optimization.