Table 1. Interrupted autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling to estimate effects of IMESEVI and RS-10 interventions in Mexico and two targeted cities.

	Estimate	SE	p-value
Death rate
México (country) Model: AR(1) S(12) MA (1 2 12)
IMESEVI	0.03	0.04	0.546
IMESEVI/RS-10	−0.06	0.04	0.114
Motorization rate	0.00	0.00	0.819
Annual IEPS	199.50	453.52	0.660
Guadalajara-Zapopan Model: AR(4) S(12) MA (12)
IMESEVI	−0.04	0.08	0.576
IMESEVI/RS-10	−0.12	0.08	0.125
Motorization rate	0.00	0.00	0.013*
León Model: AR(1 4 12) S(12) MA (4 12)
IMESEVI	0.00	0.12	0.977
IMESEVI/RS-10	−0.09	0.13	0.474
Motorization rate	0.00	0.00	0.412
Injury rate
México (country) Model: AR(4 12) S(12) MA (1/5)
IMESEVI	−0.49	0.38	0.193
IMESEVI/RS-10	−1.21	0.41	0.003*
Motorization rate	0.00	0.01	0.538
Annual IEPS	−8844.09	5576.83	0.113
Guadalajara-Zapopan Model: AR(11 12) S(12) MA (11 12)
IMESEVI	−2.21	1.98	0.264
IMESEVI/RS-10	−1.92	1.56	0.219
Motorization rate	0.01	0.01	0.156
León Model: AR(12) S(12) MA (1/5)
IMESEVI	0.07	3.72	0.985
IMESEVI/RS-10	−0.32	3.99	0.937
Motorization rate	−0.07	0.05	0.112
Collision rate
México (country) Model: AR(3 12) S(12) MA (1/7 9)
IMESEVI	−0.90	0.40	0.026*
IMESEVI/RS-10	−0.26	0.71	0.718
Motorization rate	−0.03	0.01	0.000*
Annual IEPS	−2906.24	10696.18	0.786
Guadalajara-Zapopan Model: AR(1 2 12) S(12) MA (1/7 10 11)
IMESEVI	−5.29	3.80	0.164
IMESEVI/RS-10	−10.39	4.75	0.029*
Motorization rate	−0.03	0.02	0.106
León Model: AR(12) S(12) MA (1 3 4 6)
IMESEVI	−12.21	3.11	0.000*
IMESEVI/RS-10	−5.73	2.63	0.029*
Motorization rate	−0.04	0.03	0.190

SE: standard error; AR: autocorrelation with (#p) lags of autocorrelations; S: Seasonality; MA: Moving Average with (#q) lags of moving averages; IEPS: National alcohol production and distribution. *Denotes those values that are statistically significant at p<0.05.