Table 3.

Description of model uncertainties.

Assessment component		Uncertainty description	Direction of error	Magnitude
Release	Probability of C-ELISA and quarantine missing an infected goat	There have been no formal movement of goats/sheep from Tanzania into Zambia, hence most goats will not undergo testing and quarantine	Underestimated risk	High
	Volume of trade	Most movements are illegal due to the porous border resulting in many trade routes	Underestimated risk	Moderate
Exposure	The probability of the quarantine missing a positive animal	There are no known quarantine stations in Northern Zambia. On-farm quarantine is difficult to enforce in cases where illegal animal movements are not detected	Underestimated risk	High