Table 1.
Probabilities and estimates associated with pneumococcal disease and vaccine efficacy in Chinese children ≤ 5 years of age
| Variables | Base-case estimate* | Ranges for sensitivity analysis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual incidence rates of disease |
|
|
|
| Pneumococcal meningitis (<2 years) |
0.000051 |
Base ± 25% |
[27] |
| IPD (3-5 years) |
0.000142 |
0.000128–0.000156 |
[28] |
| All-cause pneumonia |
0.12815 |
Base ± 25% |
[2] |
| All-cause AOM (≤2 years) |
0.412 |
0.012–0.64 |
[29] |
| All-cause AOM (3-5 years) |
0.381 |
0.012–0.64 |
[29] |
| Proportion of meningitis in IPD |
0.3333 |
Base ± 25% |
[30] |
|
S. pneumoniae isolation rate for pneumonia |
0.08 |
0.02–0.268 |
[31] |
|
S. pneumoniae isolation rate for AOM |
0.392 |
0.292–0.49 |
[32] |
| Disease outcomes |
|
|
|
| Case fatality rate of meningitis |
0.083 |
Base ± 25% |
[2] |
| Case fatality rate of bacteremia |
0.046 |
Base ± 25% |
[33] |
| Case fatality rate of pneumonia |
0.00526 |
Base ± 25% |
[2] |
| Probability of disability caused by meningitis |
0.07 |
Base ± 25% |
[34] |
| Probability of deafness caused by meningitis |
0.13 |
Base ± 25% |
[34] |
| Probability of tympanostomy caused by AOM |
0.059 |
Base ± 25% |
[13,35] |
| Serotype coverage rates of PCV-7 |
|
|
|
| IPD |
0.45 |
Base ± 25% |
[27] |
| Pneumonia |
0.763 |
Base ± 25% |
[36] |
| AOM |
0.648 |
Base ± 25% |
[37] |
| Efficacy of PCV-7 |
|
|
|
| IPD |
0.974 |
Base ± 25% |
[14] |
| Pneumonia |
0.9 |
Base ± 25% |
[14] |
| AOM |
0.576 |
Base ± 25% |
[15] |
| Relative efficacy of 2 doses |
0.86 |
0.645–1 |
[38] |
| Relative efficacy of 3 doses |
1 |
0.95–1 |
[24] |
| Birth cohort size in China | 16,000,000 | - | [39] |