Table 3.

Tests of coalescent-based models of diversification of Morlon et al. (2010). The properties of these models (saturated vs. expanding diversity; constant or varying rates; and extinction) are given; models 4a–d differs in ways in which speciation and extinction are modeled (for details, see Morlon et al. 2010). The two best-fit sets of models are ranked by mean weighted AIC scores. For each model, the frequency of models (as proportions) across the posterior distribution from BEAST analyses are given

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4a	Model 4b	Model 4c	Model 4d	Model 5	Model 6	AIC w	SD
Diversity	Saturated	Saturated	Expanding	Expanding	Expanding	Expanding	Expanding	Expanding	Expanding
Rates	Constant	Varying	Constant	Varying	Varying	Varying	Varying	Constant	Varying
Extinction	Positive	Positive	Positive	Positive	Positive	Positive	Positive	None	None
Best-fit	0.0	16.7%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.7%	75.2%	0.56	0.10
Next best	0.0	73.3%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0%	19.2%	0.32	0.32