TABLE III.
Deterministic sensitivity analyses
| Parameter |
Value used in the analysis
|
icer analysis (2013 CA$) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | Alternate | 1a | 2b | ||||
|
|
|
||||||
| A | B | Alternate | Alternate | ||||
| A | B | A | B | ||||
| Discounting (%) | 5 | 0 | 3 | 57,600 | 57,756 | 67,289 | 67,493 |
| Relative dose index | |||||||
| folfirinox | 0.8 | 1 | 0.7 | 69,604 | 51,985 | 81,666 | 60,606 |
| Gemcitabine | 1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 57,975 | 58,092 | 67,727 | 67,828 |
| Maximum cycles (n), per the model, of | |||||||
| First-line folfirinox (2-week cycle) and gemcitabine (1-week cycle) | 13 and 9 | 12 and 26 | — | 52,004 | — | 61,741 | — |
| Second-line gemcitabine (after 1st-line folfirinox) | 10 | 9 | 6 | 57,487 | 56,372 | 67,229 | 66,039 |
| Patients receiving 2nd-line treatment (%) | |||||||
| folfirinox | 46.8/50 | 50 | 40 | 58,077 | 60,460 | 54,624 | 56,320 |
| Gemcitabine | 49.7/0 (analysis 1/2) | 50 | 40 | ||||
| Hazard ratio for overall survival | 0.57 | 0.45 | 0.73 | 38,420 | 105,004 | 44,928 | 122,678 |
| Alternate health state utilities | |||||||
| Stable | 0.8 | 0.65 | — | 64,192 | — | 75,029 | — |
| Progressed | 0.73 | 0.58 | — | ||||
| Adverse event disutilities | |||||||
| folfirinox | −0.119 | −0.143 | −0.095 | 57,954 | 57,763 | 67,738 | 67,515 |
| Gemcitabine | −0.016 | −0.020 (−20%) | −0.013 (+20%) | ||||
| Duration of g-csf administration (days) | 21.44 (mean) | 11.00 (median) | — | 56,180 | — | — | — |
a
Base-case cost per quality-adjusted life year: $57,858.
b
Base-case cost per quality-adjusted life year: $67,626.
icer = incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; folfirinox = 5-flourouracil, leucovorin, oxaliplatin, irinotecan; g-csf = granulocyte colony–stimulating factor.