Table 1.

 Summary of key model inputs, data sources, and uncertainty and “what if” analyses

Input	Sources for model variables	Modelled with variability	Uncertainty analysis	“What if” analysis
Cycle hire:
Usage	D1	No	No	No
Duration of cycle hire travel time in past year	D1	Yes	No	No
Age structure and sex split of population with % cycle hire travel time	D1, D2, D3	No	Yes, for age	Yes
% trips newly generated by cycle hire	D2	No	Yes	No
Modal shift among trips not newly generated	D1, D2	No	No	Yes
Physical activity model:
Counterfactual (baseline) active travel, and change resulting from cycle hire	D1, D2, D4, D5	Yes	Yes	Yes
Counterfactual (baseline) other physical activity	D6	Yes	Yes	Yes
MET intensity in different activities	D5, D6, 4 13	Yes, for cycling	No	No
Health impacts of physical activity, through specific diseases	D7, 14 15	No	Yes	No
Health impacts of physical activity, directly through all cause mortality	D8, 16 17	No	Yes	No
Smaller mortality reduction from physical activity at younger ages	17	No	Yes	No
Air pollution model:
PM2.5 concentration along cycle hire and counterfactual routes	D9, D10, 18	No	Yes, for underground	Yes
Pollution scaling factors in different modes	13 19-21	Yes, through MET variability	No	No
Health impacts of PM2.5	D721 22	No	Yes	No
Injuries model:
Observed injury rate for cycle hire	D1, D11	No	No	No
Modelled injury rate for counterfactual modes	D4, D12, 23 24	No	Yes	Yes
Under-reporting of injuries in routine data	25	No	Yes	No
Health burden of injuries	D7, 26	No	Yes	No

D=datasets; MET=metabolic equivalents of task; PM2.5=air pollution particles of diameter ≤2.5 μm.

D1=operational registration plus data on cycle hire usage, July 2010-March 2012, provided by Transport for London, including trip level data for final 12 months (1 April 2011 to 31 March 2012).

D2=online survey of 2652 registered users July 2011, provided by Transport for London.

D3=intercept survey of 1034 casual users July 2011, provided by Transport for London.

D4=London travel demand survey, 56 671 adult London residents, 2005-09.²⁷

D5=national travel survey, 10 949 adult London residents, 2005-09.²⁸

D6=health survey for England, 2669 adult London residents, 2008.²⁹

D7=UK burden of disease, 2010, provided by World Health Organization³⁰; data then reweighted for size and demographic structure of population of cycle hire users.

D8=London specific life tables for 2008-10, provided by Office for National Statistics.

D9=Routino software (www.routino.org) used to identify routes on road and cycling network, derived from OpenStreetMap (CCBY-SA).

D10=London atmospheric emissions inventory 2008 concentration maps, for PM2.5.³¹

D11=police recorded road traffic crashes involving a cycle hire bicycle 2010-12 (STATS19), collated and provided by Transport for London.

D12=routinely collected police information on all road traffic crashes (STATS19) 2005-11.³²