Table 5.
Modelled health impact of cycle hire
| Outcome by population | Specific diseases averted from changes in annual incidence (95% CrI) | All non-injury diseases (95% CrI) | Approach using observed cycle hire injury rates | Approach using background cycling injury rates for cycle hire | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ischaemic heart disease | Stroke | Depression | Others* | Injuries (95% CrI) | Total (95% CrI) | Injuries (95% CrI) | Total (95% CrI) | |||
| DALYs, modelled via specific diseases: | ||||||||||
| Men | −41 (−61 to −24) | −15 (−23 to −9) | −8 (−37 to −1) | −16 (−29 to −6) | −83 (–120 to –56) | 10 (4 to 20) | –72 (–110 to –43) | 34 (21 to 51) | –49 (–88 to –17) | |
| Women | –4 (–5 to –2) | –5 (–7 to –3) | –7 (–31 to –1) | –6 (–12 to –2) | –22 (–48 to –14) | 6 (2 to 12) | –15 (–42 to –6) | 21 (14 to 30) | –1 (–27 to 12) | |
| Both sexes | –44 (–67 to –26) | –20 (–30 to –12) | –15 (–68 to –3) | –22 (–40 to –8) | –105 (–165 to –71) | 17 (6 to 32) | –88 (–148 to –51) | 55 (38 to 78) | –50 (–111 to –9) | |
| YLLs (sensitivity 1†) | ||||||||||
| Men | NA | NA | NA | NA | –73 (–131 to –41) | –3 (–4 to –2) | –76 (–134 to –44) | 9 (3 to 15) | –64 (–122 to –31) | |
| Women | NA | NA | NA | NA | –18 (–28 to –11) | –2 (–2 to –1) | –19 (–30 to –13) | 14 (7 to 21) | –4 (–17 to 6) | |
| Both sexes | NA | NA | NA | NA | –91 (–159 to –51) | –5 (–6 to –4) | –96 (–164 to –57) | 23 (14 to 32) | –68 (–138 to –27) | |
| YLLs (sensitivity 2‡) | ||||||||||
| Men | NA | NA | NA | NA | –146 (–154 to –138) | –3 (–4 to –2) | –150 (–157 to –141) | 9 (3 to 15) | –137 (–147 to –127) | |
| Women | NA | NA | NA | NA | –32 (–34 to –30) | –2 (–2 to –1) | –34 (–36 to –32) | 14 (7 to 21) | –18 (–25 to –11) | |
| Both sexes | NA | NA | NA | NA | –178 (–188 to –168) | –5 (–6 to –4) | –183 (–193 to –173) | 23 (14 to 32) | –155 (–169 to –141) | |
CrI=credible interval; DALYs=disability adjusted life years; NA=not applicable; YLLs=years of life lost. Negative values correspond to DALYs or YLLs gained—that is, a health benefit.
*Breast cancer, colon cancer, dementia, and diabetes, combined because impacts via these diseases were smaller. Point estimates are calculated separately for each cell from 50th centile of simulation (50 000 runs), as such estimates do not necessarily exactly sum (that is, estimates for men plus women may not exactly equal those for both sexes).
†Using Woodcock et al 2011.16
‡Using Wen et al 2011.17