Table 2.

 Smoking prevalence for males aged 15 to 85 years in China, 1996-2050, projected by the China SimSmoke model (see appendix table 3 for results in females)

Projected smoking prevalence	1996	2010	2015	2020	2030	2040	2050
Smoking prevalence (%)
Status quo policies	59.8	52.3	51.3	50.4	49.0	47.5	46.5
Independent policy effects:
Tax at 75% of retail price	—	—	46.2	45.1	43.4	41.7	40.5
Comprehensive smoke-free air laws	—	—	46.7	45.7	44.3	42.7	41.7
Comprehensive marketing ban	—	—	49.7	48.7	47.2	45.6	44.6
High intensity tobacco control campaign	—	—	50.0	48.9	47.5	46.0	45.0
Strong health warnings	—	—	50.6	49.6	48.1	46.4	45.5
Youth access enforcement	—	—	51.0	49.9	48.3	46.6	45.5
Cessation treatment policies	—	—	49.9	48.8	47.1	45.5	44.6
Combined policy effects	—	—	35.4	33.6	31.4	29.4	28.2
% change in smoking prevalence from status quo
Independent policy effects:
Tax at 75% of retail price	—	—	−10.0	−10.5	−11.3	−12.2	−12.9
Comprehensive smoke-free air laws	—	—	−8.8	−9.2	−9.7	−10.1	−10.3
Comprehensive marketing ban	—	—	−3.0	−3.2	−3.6	−3.8	−4.1
High intensity tobacco control campaign	—	—	−2.6	−2.8	−3.0	−3.2	−3.3
Strong health warnings	—	—	−1.3	−1.5	−1.9	−2.2	−2.3
Youth access enforcement	—	—	−0.5	−0.9	−1.3	−1.8	−2.3
Cessation treatment policies	—	—	−2.7	−3.1	−3.8	−4.1	−4.0
Combined policy effects	—	—	−31.3	−33.8	−37.0	−39.6	−41.2

Status quo=scenario in which tobacco control policies were maintained at 2010 levels.