Table 3.
Calculations to estimate the cost effectiveness (ICER) and public health impact (attributable DLY gained) of Stoptober across age bands.
| <35 | 35–44 | 45–54 | 55–64 | >65 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimates | ||||||
| A. % Stoptober effect size (95%CI) | 4.15 (0.94–7.37) |
4.15 (0.94–7.37) |
4.15 (0.94–7.37) |
4.15 (0.94–7.37) |
4.15 (0.94–7.37) |
4.15 (0.94–7.37) |
| B. Proportion quitting permanently | 0.025 | 0.025 | 0.025 | 0.025 | 0.025 | 0.025 |
| C. DLY gained attributable to Stoptober per smoker stopping permanently† | 1.084 | 1.588 | 1.577 | 1.161 | 0.000 | 1.180 |
| D. £million Known costs of Stoptober | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| E. Total smokers in England | 8493,480 | 8493,480 | 8493,480 | 8493,480 | 8493,480 | 8493,480 |
| F. Relative proportion of smokers in age band in England§ | 0.375 | 0.217 | 0.180 | 0.125 | 0.103 | 1.000 |
| ICER calculation | ||||||
| G. (A × B)% Stopping permanently as a consequence of Stoptober (95%CI) | 0.104 (0.023–0.184) |
0.104 (0.023–0.184) |
0.104 0.023–0.184) |
0.104 (0.023–0.184) |
0.104 0.023–0.184) |
0.104 (0.023–0.184) |
| H. ([C × G]/100) × 10−3 Mean attributable DLY gained per smoker (95%CI) | 1.13 (0.25–2.00) |
1.65 (0.37–2.92) |
1.64 (0.37–2.90) |
1.21 (0.27–2.14) |
0.00 (0.00–0.00) |
1.22 (0.28–2.17) |
| I. (D/E) £ Cost per smoker | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| J. (I/H) £ ICER (95%CI) | 606.87 (137.10–1076.65) | 414.26 (93.59–734.94) | 417.15 (94.24–740.07) | 566.63 (128.01–1005.25) | – | 557.70 (125.99–989.41) |
| Public health impact calculation | ||||||
| K. (E × F) Smokers in age band in England | 3186,355.35 | 1842,526.43 | 1526,013.22 | 1061,366.30 | 877,218.70 | 8493,480.00 |
| L. (G × K) Smokers stopping permanently in England as a result of Stoptober in age band (95%CI) | 3307.56 (747.21–5867.92) |
1912.62 (432.08–3393.16) |
1584.06 (357.85–2810.27) |
1101.74 (248.89–1954.59) |
910.59 (205.71–1615.47) |
8816.57 (1991.74–15,641.40) |
| M. (C × L) Attributable DLY gained (95%CI) | 3585.40 (809.97–6360.83) |
3037.23 (686.14–5388.33) |
2498.07 (564.34–4431.80) |
1279.12 (288.96–2269.28) |
0.00 (0.00–0.00) |
10,399.82 (2349.41–18,450.23) |
NB: In the table figures are rounded but precise figures were used for all calculations. A modifiable excel version of this table is available in the online supplementary materials.
These figures are taken from an existing model for calculating the cost-effectiveness of smoking interventions (Stapleton and West, 2012). The ‘Total’ figure is the mean of the other figures weighted for smoking prevalence in the different age groups and relative proportion of these age groups in the English population.
Estimated from the smoking prevalence figures of 24%, 25%, 21%, 17% and 10% for the different age bands (on the basis of prevalence data from the Smoking Toolkit Study, (Fidler et al., 2011)) and the relative proportion of these age groups in the English population of 0.31, 0.18, 0.17, 0.14 and 0.20 (Office for National Statistics, 2011).