Table 2.

Parameter values assumed for the model of the impact of the intervention for central and optimistic target scenarios, and projected impact on HIV incidence in Arms A and B compared with Arm C, assuming intervention roll-out over a 6-month time period

Parameter		Central target		Optimistic target
Annual coverage of test and treat campaign		70%		75%
Treatment failure & drop-out rate, per year		10%		10%
Effectiveness of ART in blocking transmission		90%		95%
Take up of male circumcision when offered		50%		50%
		Arm A	Arm B	Arm A	Arm B
Zambia	Impact on cumulative incidence (3 years)	61%	25%	63%	27%
	Impact on cumulative incidence (first 2 years)	58%	24%	61%	25%
	Impact on HIV incidence during Year 1	51%	20%	54%	21%
	Impact on HIV incidence during Year 2	65%	27%	67%	28%
	Impact on HIV incidence during Year 3	67%	29%	68%	30%
South Africa	Impact on cumulative incidence (3 years)	62%	26%	64%	27%
	Impact on cumulative incidence (first 2 years)	59%	25%	61%	26%
	Impact on HIV incidence during Year 1	52%	22%	55%	23%
	Impact on HIV incidence during Year 2	65%	28%	67%	29%
	Impact on HIV incidence during Year 3	68%	29%	69%	30%