Figure 2. Stroke incidence.

A) Cumulative survival until first stroke: The solid line is modelled from the 129 patients with serum iron <8 µmol/L; dotted line from the 161 patients with serum iron >19 µmol/L. Shaded areas indicate 95% confidence intervals. B) Comparison of the stroke risk ROC models from myocardial infarction and serum iron (base model, black line/symbols), and strongest model generated from captured physiological variables, excluding the outcome measure of myocardial infarction (red line/symbols). The two models provide equivalent areas under the curve of 0.65 and 0·66 (p = 0.88). In the physiological ROC model, stroke risk was higher not only with lower serum iron (OR 0.95 [95% CI 0.90, 1.01]), but also with lower PAP(mean) (OR 0.94 [0.86, 1.03]); higher fibrinogen (OR 1.50 [0.95, 2.33]), lower SaO₂ (OR 0.98 [95% CI 0.93, 1·03]), and in women (OR 1.57 [0.71, 3.47]).