Table 3.

Independent effects on likelihood of patient receiving a ‘may be fit’ note

	Model A (Null)	Model B		Model C		MODEL D
		OR (95% CI)	P-value	OR (95% CI)	P-value	OR (95% CI)	P-value
Level 1: Patient
Category of health problem
Respiratory problem		1.00		1.00		1.00
Mental health problem		1.86 (1.50 to 2.32)	<0.001	1.82 (1.38 to 2.44)	<0.001	1.80 (1.39 to 2.44)	<0.001
Musculoskeletal		3.27 (2.60 to 4.10)	<0.001	3.19 (2.56 to 4.16)	<0.001	3.17 (2.38 to 4.36)	<0.001
Injury		4.29 (3.38 to 5.43)	<0.001	4.19 (3.29 to 5.54)	<0.001	4.17 (3.10 to 5.71)	<0.001
Circulatory illness		3.58 (2.63 to 4.88)	<0.001	3.50 (2.55 to 5.02)	<0.001	3.45 (2.40 to 5.09)	<0.001
Post-operative recovery		3.30 (2.61 to 4.17)	<0.001	3.19 (2.53 to 4.30)	<0.001	3.15 (2.37 to 4.48)	<0.001
Other		2.20 (1.77 to 2.74)	<0.001	2.11 (1.67 to 2.85)	<0.001	2.04 (1.45 to 2.94)	<0.001
Female patient		1.11 (1.02 to 1.22)	0.020	1.10 (1.01 to 1.20)	0.030	1.09 (1.01 to 1.21)	0.032
Age (10 years older)		1.01 (0.98 to 1.02)	0.910	1.05 (0.93 to 1.08)	0.880	1.05 (0.92 to 1.09)	0.890
Living in one of 20% most deprived neighbourhoods in the country		0.83 (0.72 to 0.94)	0.006	0.85 (0.75 to 0.93)	0.005	0.86 (0.73 to 0.94)	0.011
Level 2: Certifying GP
Female GP				1.01 (0.88 to 1.15)	0.830	1.01 (0.80 to 1.24)	0.890
Age, years
<35				1.00		1.00
35–50				0.96 (0.81 to 1.14)	0.630	0.97 (0.81 to 1.15)	0.720
>50				0.92 (0.76 to 1.13)	0.440	0.93 (0.76 to 1.14)	0.490
Partner in practice				0.92 (0.79 to 1.07)	0.290	0.91 (0.78 to 1.07)	0.250
Works full-time				0.90 (0.78 to 1.03)	0.130	0.94 (0.74 to 1.08)	0.140
Level 3: Practice
List size, patients
<5000						1.00
5000–10 000						1.24 (0.82 to 1.85)	0.300
>10 000						1.23 (0.78 to 1.95)	0.380
Urban (versus rural) practice area						0.88 (0.61 to 1.27)	0.510
Practice ‘very deprived’						0.76 (0.50 to 1.15)	0.200
Random effects
Model Variance	0.42	0.37		0.36		0.34
Median OR	1.85	1.78		1.77		1.74

Values in bold denote statistically significant effects.