Figure 4.

Mean and 95% confidence interval of the contributions of: (A) identifiable HIV incidence among stable HIV discordant couples due to HIV transmission from the infected to the uninfected partner in the couple, (B) HIV incidence among stable HIV discordant couples due to acquiring the infection from a source external to the couple and (C) HIV incidence among individuals not in stable couples. These measures, for 24 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, are relative to total HIV incidence in the population in each country. Estimates were calculated based on 10,000 runs of the model for each country using Monte Carlo sampling from triangular probability distributions for the specified ranges of uncertainty of the model parameters. Countries are shown in order of increasing HIV prevalence. The horizontal line in the different panels represents the average for the contribution measure in question across all countries.