Table 5.

Comparison of predicted vs. actual priority for updating ^a

CER	2009 prediction	End date of update search	2013 assessment	Rationale
Comparative Effectiveness of Management Strategies for Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease[25]	High	August 2010	High	Some procedures specifically mentioned in the Executive Summary have been withdrawn from the market. New procedures have been introduced. There is a major change in the conclusion about surgery vs. medical therapy.
Effectiveness of Noninvasive Diagnostic Tests for Breast Abnormalities[26]	High	September 2010	Medium	The new data did not change the overall conclusions very much. The conclusion that MRI and ultrasound may be sufficient to evaluate lesions in women at low risk may be an important new conclusion.
Comparative Effectiveness of Epoetin and Darbepoetin for Managing Anemia in Patients Undergoing Cancer Treatment[27]	High	April 2012	High	Major safety concerns leading to substantial changes in black box warnings and practice guidelines
Comparative Effectiveness and Safety of Analgesics for Osteoarthritis[23]	High	January 2011	High	The updated Executive Summary specifically mentions a number of drugs that have been withdrawn because of safety concerns.
Efficacy and Comparative Effectiveness of Off-Label Use of Atypical Antipsychotics[28]	Medium	May 2011	Medium	There are many new off-label indications and data on effectiveness, but these do not indicate strong effects of these drugs.
Comparative Effectiveness of Drug Therapy for Rheumatoid Arthritis and Psoriatic Arthritis in Adults[29]	Medium	February 2011	High	New, expensive biologic DMARDs feature prominently in the Executive Summary of the updated report.
Comparative Effectiveness of Treatments to Prevent Fractures in Men and Women with Low Bone Density or Osteoporosis[30]	Medium	March 2011	Medium	There are two new drugs: zoledronic acid and denosumab. However, there is no evidence that they are any more effective than existing drugs. There are signals of serious but rare new side effects, in particular subtrochanteric fractures of the hip, but they are not sufficient to change the initial decision to recommend antiresorptive therapy for women with osteoporosis.
Comparative Effectiveness of Second-Generation Antidepressants in the Pharmacologic Treatment of Adult Depression[24]	Low	January 2011	Low	No substantive changes in conclusions
Comparative Effectiveness of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors (ACEIs) and Angiotensin II Receptor Antagonists (ARBs) for Treating Essential Hypertension[31]	Low	December 2010	Low	No substantive changes in conclusions

^aDMARD, disease-modifying antirheumatic drug; MRI, magnetic resonance imaging.