Figure 5. Final Bactrocera spp. Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) projected spatially a) Final ENMs projected to southern Africa to predict the range expansion of B. invadens.

Hatched area = area affected by recent B. invadens incursions. Red points are known localities of trapped flies. Models displayed at a binary presence/absence threshold set at maximum training sensitivity plus specificity. b) Final ENMs projected to show global invasion potential of Bactrocera invadens and when considered as a single species with B. dorsalis, B. philippinensis and B. papayae. Shading indicates variables outside training range and extrapolation (calculated with the multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS) analysis in Maxent [26]). Models displayed at a binary presence/absence threshold set at maximum training sensitivity plus specificity.