EXHIBIT 4. Change In Major Entitlement Spending In Various Scenarios Compared To Status Quo, Billions Of Dollars, 2010–60.

SOURCE Authors’ calculations using the Future Elderly Model.

NOTES All spending is in 2010 dollars. The exhibit shows the cumulative fiscal impact of spending on Medicare, Medicaid, OASDI, and SSI (discounted at 3 percent) of various medical progress scenarios relative to the status quo scenario. The fix is a gradual increase in the eligibility ages for Medicare and Social Security. The inclusion of the eligibility fix would result in no additional entitlement spending relative to that in the status quo scenario, despite much larger increases in the older population (see Appendix Exhibit S4; Note 24 in text).