Table 3.
Prognostic performance of the high-risk SCORE (≥5 vs. <5%)
| MONICA men |
HAPIEE men |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CZ | PL-W | PL-T | LT | RU | CZ | PL-K | RU | |
| Predicted (P) deaths, N (%) | 33.5 (5.26) | 72.4 (5.78) | 69.0 (5.43) | 83.1 (5.03) | 138.1 (5.36) | 199.7 (7.51) | 254.7 (7.37) | 294.4 (9.07) |
| Observed (O) deaths, N (%) | 32 (5.03) | 86 (6.68) | 62 (4.89) | 58 (3.51) | 181 (7.03) | 37 (1.39) | 34 (0.98) | 105 (3.23) |
| P/O ratio | 1.05 | 0.87 | 1.11 | 1.43 | 0.76 | 5.40 | 7.52 | 2.81 |
| Estimated (E) deaths, N (%)* | — | — | — | — | — | 74.0 (2.78) | 94.2 (2.73) | 279.3 (8.60) |
| P/E ratio | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 2.70 | 1.06 |
| Sensitivity | 0.78 | 0.79 | 0.71 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.95 | 0.79 | 0.94 |
| Specificity | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.56 | 0.60 | 0.58 | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| PPV | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| NPV | 0.98 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| Harrell's C | 0.69 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.63 |
|
MONICA women |
HAPIEE women |
|||||||
| CZ | PL-W | PL-T | LT | RU | CZ | PL-K | RU | |
| Predicted (P) deaths, N (%) | 12.5 (1.78) | 22.6 (1.96) | 24.6 (1.68) | 26.4 (1.60) | 44.7 (1.67) | 85.0 (2.53) | 92.0 (2.45) | 124.6 (3.08) |
| Observed (O) deaths, N (%) | 13 (1.85) | 21 (1.82) | 19 (1.30) | 26 (1.58) | 86 (3.21) | 19 (0.57) | 16 (0.43) | 42 (1.04) |
| P/O ratio | 0.96 | 1.08 | 1.29 | 1.01 | 0.52 | 4.44 | 5.70 | 2.96 |
| Estimated (E) deaths, N (%)* | — | — | — | — | — | 41.2 (1.23) | 37.3 (0.99) | 139.0 (3.44) |
| P/E ratio | — | — | — | — | — | 2.06 | 2.48 | 0.90 |
| Sensitivity | 0.39 | 0.19 | 0.26 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 0.42 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| Specificity | 0.89 | 0.88 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.83 | 0.84 | 0.76 |
| PPV | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| NPV | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| Harrell's C | 0.64 | 0.54 | 0.59 | 0.61 | 0.64 | 0.63 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
CZ, Czech Republic; LT, Lithuania; PL-K, Poland (Krakow); PL-T, Poland (Tarnobrzeg); PL-W, Poland (Warsaw); RU, Russia. CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; NNP, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.
*MONICA-based estimations of 10 year CVD mortality in HAPPIEE.