Table 3.
Hazard ratios for coronary heart disease per 1-SD higher baseline levels of inflammatory cytokines with progressive adjustment for baseline levels of potential confounders
| Outcome\adjustmenta | Loge IL-6 (ng/L) |
Loge IL-18 (ng/L) |
Loge MMP-9 (µg/L) |
Loge sCD40L (ng/L) |
Loge TNF-α (ng/L) |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95% CI) | Wald 
|
HR (95% CI) | Wald 
|
HR (95% CI) | Wald 
|
HR (95% CI) | Wald 
|
HR (95% CI) | Wald 
|
|
| All CHD (including angina) | 1180 participants, 654 cases | 1190 participants, 662 cases | 1214 participants, 670 cases | 1036 participants, 575 cases | 1187 participants, 660 cases | |||||
| Adjusted for cohort, sex | 1.46 (1.30, 1.64) | 41 | 1.37 (1.20, 1.55) | 23 | 1.27 (1.14, 1.42) | 18 | 1.01 (0.88, 1.15) | 0 | 1.06 (0.95, 1.18) | 1 |
| Plus age | 1.35 (1.18, 1.53) | 21 | 1.29 (1.12, 1.49) | 13 | 1.27 (1.12, 1.44) | 14 | 0.99 (0.85, 1.14) | 0 | 1.13 (1.00, 1.27) | 4 |
| Plus systolic blood pressure | 1.35 (1.18, 1.53) | 20 | 1.29 (1.11, 1.49) | 12 | 1.26 (1.11, 1.44) | 12 | 1.00 (0.86, 1.16) | 0 | 1.14 (1.01, 1.29) | 4 |
| Plus smoking status | 1.30 (1.14, 1.49) | 15 | 1.27 (1.10, 1.47) | 10 | 1.20 (1.05, 1.37) | 8 | 0.98 (0.84, 1.14) | 0 | 1.16 (1.02, 1.31) | 5 |
| Plus history of diabetes | 1.32 (1.15, 1.51) | 16 | 1.25 (1.08, 1.46) | 9 | 1.23 (1.07, 1.41) | 9 | 0.97 (0.83, 1.14) | 0 | 1.17 (1.03, 1.32) | 6 |
| Plus BMI | 1.30 (1.14, 1.50) | 14 | 1.24 (1.07, 1.44) | 8 | 1.23 (1.07, 1.41) | 9 | 0.97 (0.83, 1.14) | 0 | 1.15 (1.01, 1.31) | 5 |
| Plus loge triglycerides | 1.27 (1.11, 1.46) | 11 | 1.16 (0.99, 1.36) | 4 | 1.22 (1.06, 1.40) | 8 | 0.96 (0.81, 1.12) | 0 | 1.15 (1.01, 1.31) | 4 |
| Plus total cholesterol | 1.28 (1.11, 1.47) | 12 | 1.17 (1.00, 1.36) | 4 | 1.22 (1.06, 1.41) | 8 | 0.97 (0.82, 1.14) | 0 | 1.18 (1.03, 1.35) | 6 |
| Plus non-HDL cholesterolb | 1.28 (1.11, 1.48) | 12 | 1.15 (0.99, 1.35) | 3 | 1.22 (1.06, 1.40) | 8 | 0.97 (0.82, 1.14) | 0 | 1.17 (1.02, 1.34) | 5 |
| Plus HDL cholesterolb | 1.27 (1.11, 1.47) | 11 | 1.12 (0.96, 1.32) | 2 | 1.22 (1.06, 1.40) | 8 | 0.95 (0.80, 1.13) | 0 | 1.14 (1.00, 1.31) | 4 |
| Plus alcoholb | 1.27 (1.10, 1.46) | 10 | 1.12 (0.96, 1.32) | 2 | 1.21 (1.06, 1.40) | 7 | 0.95 (0.80, 1.13) | 0 | 1.14 (1.00, 1.31) | 4 |
| Plus socio-economic positionb | 1.26 (1.08, 1.46) | 9 | 1.12 (0.95, 1.31) | 2 | 1.21 (1.05, 1.39) | 7 | 0.93 (0.78, 1.11) | 1 | 1.14 (1.00, 1.31) | 4 |
| Plus other cytokinesb,c | 1.24 (1.04, 1.47) | 6 | 1.03 (0.86, 1.23) | 0 | 1.25 (1.05, 1.50) | 6 | 0.80 (0.66, 0.98) | 5 | 1.09 (0.92, 1.30) | 1 |
| Non-fatal MI or CHD death | 1180 participants, 405 cases | 1190 participants, 414 cases | 1214 participants, 419 cases | 1036 participants, 375 cases | 1187 participants, 412 cases | |||||
| Adjusted for cohort, sex | 1.47 (1.29, 1.67) | 34 | 1.37 (1.18, 1.58) | 18 | 1.27 (1.12, 1.43) | 14 | 1.04 (0.89, 1.22) | 0 | 1.09 (0.96, 1.23) | 2 |
| Plus age | 1.36 (1.18, 1.56) | 19 | 1.29 (1.10, 1.52) | 10 | 1.26 (1.10, 1.45) | 11 | 1.02 (0.86, 1.21) | 0 | 1.17 (1.02, 1.34) | 5 |
| Plus systolic blood pressure | 1.36 (1.18, 1.56) | 18 | 1.29 (1.09, 1.52) | 9 | 1.26 (1.09, 1.45) | 10 | 1.03 (0.87, 1.22) | 0 | 1.18 (1.03, 1.36) | 6 |
| Plus smoking status | 1.31 (1.13, 1.51) | 14 | 1.27 (1.08, 1.50) | 8 | 1.19 (1.03, 1.37) | 6 | 1.02 (0.85, 1.21) | 0 | 1.20 (1.04, 1.38) | 7 |
| Plus history of diabetes | 1.32 (1.14, 1.52) | 14 | 1.26 (1.06, 1.49) | 7 | 1.22 (1.05, 1.41) | 7 | 1.01 (0.84, 1.21) | 0 | 1.22 (1.06, 1.40) | 8 |
| Plus BMI | 1.31 (1.13, 1.52) | 13 | 1.25 (1.05, 1.48) | 7 | 1.22 (1.05, 1.41) | 7 | 1.01 (0.84, 1.21) | 0 | 1.21 (1.04, 1.39) | 7 |
| Plus loge triglycerides | 1.29 (1.11, 1.50) | 11 | 1.17 (0.98, 1.40) | 3 | 1.22 (1.05, 1.41) | 7 | 1.00 (0.84, 1.20) | 0 | 1.19 (1.03, 1.38) | 6 |
| Plus total cholesterol | 1.30 (1.12, 1.51) | 11 | 1.18 (0.99, 1.40) | 3 | 1.22 (1.05, 1.42) | 7 | 1.02 (0.85, 1.22) | 0 | 1.22 (1.05, 1.42) | 7 |
| Plus non-HDL cholesterolb | 1.30 (1.11, 1.51) | 11 | 1.16 (0.97, 1.39) | 3 | 1.21 (1.04, 1.41) | 6 | 1.02 (0.85, 1.23) | 0 | 1.21 (1.04, 1.41) | 6 |
| Plus HDL cholesterolb | 1.29 (1.11, 1.50) | 11 | 1.13 (0.95, 1.35) | 2 | 1.21 (1.04, 1.41) | 6 | 1.01 (0.83, 1.22) | 0 | 1.18 (1.02, 1.37) | 5 |
| Plus alcoholb | 1.27 (1.09, 1.48) | 10 | 1.13 (0.95, 1.35) | 2 | 1.21 (1.04, 1.40) | 6 | 1.00 (0.83, 1.21) | 0 | 1.18 (1.02, 1.37) | 5 |
| Plus socio-economic positionb | 1.29 (1.10, 1.52) | 10 | 1.13 (0.95, 1.36) | 3 | 1.20 (1.03, 1.40) | 6 | 0.98 (0.80, 1.19) | 0 | 1.19 (1.02, 1.39) | 5 |
| Plus other cytokinesb,c | 1.27 (1.06, 1.53) | 7 | 1.06 (0.87, 1.29) | 0 | 1.19 (0.99, 1.43) | 3 | 0.87 (0.70, 1.09) | 1 | 1.12 (0.93, 1.35) | 2 |
aHazard ratios are presented per 1-SD higher observed levels at baseline for each inflammatory cytokine, progressively adjusted as shown and stratified by cohort. The sequence of adjustment generally corresponded to adjustment for established non-lipid risk factors first, then lipids (omitting one of highly correlated lipid variables) and finally other lifestyle risk factors and cytokines. Analyses were restricted to participants with complete information on the respective inflammatory cytokines and all confounding variables.
b Non-HDL cholesterol has been substituted for total cholesterol in these adjusted models.
cAdditional mutual adjustment of the four other cytokines based on data from 977 participants and 550 cases for analyses of all CHD outcome, and 355 cases for analysis of non-fatal MI or CHD death outcome.