Table 4. Expected increase in the incidence (cases/100,000) of reported domestic salmonella cases in Sweden in 2010, if the Swedish salmonella control had been substituted with a programme similar to the Danish (DK) or the Dutch (NL) control programme.

Data source	Method a		Method b
	DK scenarios	NL scenarios	DK scenarios	NL scenarios
1. Sero-incidence	25 (DK/1a)	90 (NL/1a)	24 (DK/1b)	71 (NL/1b)
2. Travel data I	19 (DK/2a)	86 (NL/2a)	13 (DK/2b)	68 (NL/2b)
3. Travel data II	*	*	*	*
4. Reconstruction of the surveillance pyramid	18 (DK/4a)	*	10 (DK/4b)	*
5. Expert opinion/reconstruction of the surveillance pyramid	17 (DK/5a)	*	10 (DK/5b)	*

* Not included as the total number of cases (Table 2) was considered to be unrealistic.

Figures are given for each of the five data sources and for the two methods to estimate the number of domestic cases; percent domestic in DK and NL (method a) and number of reported travel related cases in SE in 2010 (method b).