Abstract
An earthquake of magnitude M and linear source dimension L(M) is preceded within a few years by certain patterns of seismicity in the magnitude range down to about (M - 3) in an area of linear dimension about 5L-10L. Prediction algorithms based on such patterns may allow one to predict approximately 80% of strong earthquakes with alarms occupying altogether 20-30% of the time-space considered. An area of alarm can be narrowed down to 2L-3L when observations include lower magnitudes, down to about (M - 4). In spite of their limited accuracy, such predictions open a possibility to prevent considerable damage. The following findings may provide for further development of prediction methods: (i) long-range correlations in fault system dynamics and accordingly large size of the areas over which different observed fields could be averaged and analyzed jointly, (ii) specific symptoms of an approaching strong earthquake, (iii) the partial similarity of these symptoms worldwide, (iv) the fact that some of them are not Earth specific: we probably encountered in seismicity the symptoms of instability common for a wide class of nonlinear systems.
Full text
PDF
Images in this article
Selected References
These references are in PubMed. This may not be the complete list of references from this article.
- Aki K. Scale dependence in earthquake phenomena and its relevance to earthquake prediction. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1996 Apr 30;93(9):3740–3747. doi: 10.1073/pnas.93.9.3740. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Gabrielov A., Keilis-Borok V., Jackson D. D. Geometric incompatibility in a fault system. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1996 Apr 30;93(9):3838–3842. doi: 10.1073/pnas.93.9.3838. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Newman WI, Turcotte DL, Gabrielov AM. log-periodic behavior of a hierarchical failure model with applications to precursory seismic activation. Phys Rev E Stat Phys Plasmas Fluids Relat Interdiscip Topics. 1995 Nov;52(5):4827–4835. doi: 10.1103/physreve.52.4827. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Romanowicz B. Spatiotemporal patterns in the energy release of great earthquakes. Science. 1993 Jun 25;260(5116):1923–1926. doi: 10.1126/science.260.5116.1923. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]