Table 3.
Predictors of early and late incident TB
| Risk factor | *†Early TB | **Late TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number with incident TB/person-years | Incidence (95%CI) | Incidence rate ratio | Number with incident TB/person-years | Incidence (95%CI) | Incidence rate ratio | |
| Age (years) | ||||||
| missing | 0/1.3 | - | 0/2.8 | |||
| <24 | 3/19.2 | 15.6 (3.2 to 45.6) | 4.1 (0.5 to 30.5) | 4/97.0 | 4.1 (1.1 to 10.6) | 1.1 (0.2 to 3.8) |
| 24–34 | 15/84.2 | 17.8 (10.0 to 29.4) | 4.7 (1.3 to 25.2) | 14/492.8 | 2.8 (1.6 to 4.8) | 0.8 (0.4 to 1.8) |
| 35+ | 3/78.7 | 3.8 (0.8 to 11.1) | reference | 15/435.2 | 3.4 (1.9 to 5.7) | reference |
|
| ||||||
| Gender | ||||||
| missing | 0/1.2 | - | 0/2.8 | |||
| Male | 4/54.5 | 7.3 (2.0 to 18.8) | reference | 9/326 | 2.8 (1.3 to 5.2) | reference |
| Female | 17/127.6 | 13.3 (7.6 to 21.3) | 1.8 (0.6 to 7.4) | 24/699 | 3.4 (2.2 to 5.1) | 1.2 (0.6 to 3.0) |
|
| ||||||
| BMI (kg/m2) | ||||||
| missing | 2/11.9 | 16.8 (2.0 to 60.7) | 4/64.6 | 6.2 (1.7 to 15.8) | ||
| <18.5 | 2/18.2 | 11.0 (1.3 to 39.7) | 0.9 (0.1 to 4.3) | 5/119.7 | 4.2 (1.4 to 9.7) | 1.6 (0.4 to 5.7) |
| 18.5–25 | 9/90.7 | 9.9 (4.5 to 18.8) | 0.8 (0.3 to 2.3) | 16/527.4 | 3.0 (1.7 to 4.9) | 1.2 (0.5 to 3.2) |
| >25 | 8/62.5 | 12.8 (5.5 to 25.2) | reference | 8/316.1 | 2.5 (1.1 to 5.0) | reference |
|
| ||||||
| WHO Clinical Stage of HIV Disease | ||||||
| missing | 0/1.8 | - | 1/5.6 | 17.8 (0.5 to 99.2) | ||
| 3 or 4 | 16/89.4 | 17.9 (10.2 to 29.1) | reference | 23/587.6 | 3.9 (2.5 to 5.8) | reference |
| 1 or 2 | 5/92.2 | 5.4 (1.8 to 12.7) | 0.3 (0.1 to 0.9) | 9/434.6 | 2.1 (0.9 to 3.9) | 0.5 (0.2 to 1.2) |
|
| ||||||
| Number of previous episodes of TB | ||||||
| missing | 0/3.3 | 1/14.4 | 7.0 (0.2 to 38.7) | |||
| 0 | 16/146.2 | 10.9 (6.3 to 17.8) | reference | 21/653.9 | 3.2 (2.0 to 4.9) | reference |
| 1 | 5/33.9 | 14.8 (4.8 to 34.4) | 1.3 (0.4 to 3.9) | 10/257.1 | 3.9 (1.9 to 7.2) | 1.2 (0.5 to 2.7) |
| 2 | - | - | 1/102.4 | 1.0 (0 to 5.4) | 0.3 (0 to 1.9) | |
|
| ||||||
| CD4+ count (cells/μL3) at HAART initiation | ||||||
| missing | 4/14.9 | 26.9 (7.3 to 68.8) | 2/75.6 | 2.6 (0.3 to 9.6) | - | |
| <50 | 3/31.1 | 9.6 (2.0 to 28.2) | 1.6 (0.2 to 19.1) | 9/195.1 | 4.6 (2.1 to 8.8) | 1.0 (0.3 to 2.9) |
| 50–200 | 12/104.2 | 11.5 (5.9 to 20.1) | 1.9 (0.4 to 17.6) | 14/586.4 | 2.4 (1.3 to 4.0) | 0.5 (0.2 to 1.4) |
| >200 | 2/33.1 | 6.0 (0.7 to 21.8) | reference | 8/170.8 | 4.7 (2.0 to 9.2) | reference |
|
| ||||||
| Viral load at HAART initiation(log copies/ml) | ||||||
| missing | 6/31.2 | 19.2 (7.1 to 41.8) | 8/210.4 | 3.8 (1.6 to 7.4) | - | |
| <5 | 4/80.7 | 5.0 (1.4 to 12.7) | 0.3 (0.1 to 1.1) | 13/387.8 | 3.4 (1.8 to 5.7) | 1.2 (0.5 to 2.9) |
| ≥ 5 | 11/71.5 | 15.4 (7.7 to 27.5) | reference | 12/429.6 | 2.8 (1.4 to 4.9) | reference |