Table 2. Expected outcome of screening for breast cancer with breath test.
CANCER STATUS | |||||||
Positive | Negative | Pre-test value (%) | Post-test value (%) | Enrichment factor | |||
TEST | positive | TP = 3,231 | FP = 298,815 | PPV | 0.395 | 1.070 | 2.708 |
RESULT | negative | FN = 719 | TN = 697,235 | NPV | 99.605 | 99.897 | 1.003 |
Total | 3,950 | 996,050 |
The table summarizes the expected outcome of screening one million women in the USA with a breath test, assuming test sensitivity = 81.8% and specificity = 70.0% (Figure 1, middle panel), and prevalence of breast cancer is 3.95 cancers per 1000 (based on mean cancer detection rate of screening mammography) [44]. TP = true positives, FP = false positives, FN = false negatives, and TN = true negatives. PPV and NPV are positive and negative predictive value respectively, where PPV = TP/(TP+FP), NPV = TN/(TN+FN), and enrichment factor = post-test value/pre-test value.