Table 4.

Best fit models with the beginning week of the Lyme disease season as the response variable^*

Model	Number of parameters	Adj. R2	AIC	ΔAIC	Model parameters	Parameter estimates	95% Confidence interval
1	4	0.785	368.4	0	Week 20 cumul. GDD	−0.014	−0.016 to −0.011
					Mean SD before onset	0.945	0.696–1.194
					Cumul. precip. after Week 8	0.009	0.007–0.011
					Distance to coastline	0.093	0.055–0.131
2	4	0.784	369.4	1.0	Week 20 cumul. GDD	−0.014	−0.016 to −0.012
					Mean SD before onset	0.932	0.683–1.181
					Cumul. precip. after Week 8	0.009	0.008–0.011
					Longitude	−0.052	−0.090 to −0.014
3	4	0.773	376.7	8.3	Weeks to 150 GDD	0.530	0.445–0.614
					Mean SD before onset	1.062	0.801–1.322
					Cumul. precip. after Week 8	0.010	0.008–0.012
					Distance to coastline	0.098	0.059–0.137
4	4	0.772	377.3	8.9	Weeks to 150 GDD	0.568	0.487–0.648
					Mean SD before onset	1.055	0.792–1.318
					Cumul. precip. after Week 8	0.010	0.008–0.012
					Longitude	−0.056	−0.078 to −0.033

^*Number of model parameters, model adjusted r², AIC, and ΔAIC values and parameter estimates with 95% confidence intervals for all models with ΔAIC < 10. ΔAIC represents the difference between a model's AIC value and the AIC value of the best fit overall model. Italicized parameters are not statistically different from 0 at α = 0.05 confidence level.