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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2015 Mar 1.
Published in final edited form as: Immunol Rev. 2014 Mar;258(1):218–240. doi: 10.1111/imr.12159

Fig. 10. Relationship of composite score to fibrosis in the Discovery set, ROC curve analysis of the composite score in the Discovery set and the Validation set and the predicted and observed number of transplant recipients with fibrosis for each sextile of the composite score within the Discovery and Validation sets.

Fig. 10

To predict fibrosis in the Discovery set, a composite score was calculated based on a logistic model, from vimentin mRNA, NKCC2 mRNA and E cadherin mRNA as well as the 18S rRNA in urine samples obtained from the 32 subjects with biopsy-confirmed fibrosis and 44 subjects with stable graft function and normal allograft biopsy. The composite score predicted fibrosis with high accuracy. Panel A shows the predicted probability of fibrosis (Y-axis) as a logistic function of the composite score (X-axis). The blue band represents the 95% confidence interval of the model. Panel B shows the receiver-operating-characteristic curve for the diagnosis of fibrosis using the composite score. The model had an area under the curve of 0.95 (95%CI: 0.90 to 0.99, P<0.0001). At a cutpoint or 4.5, fibrosis was diagnosed with a specificity of 84.1% (95%CI: 73.3 to 94.9%) and a sensitivity of 93.8% (95%CI: 85.4 to 99.9%). The final prediction equation derived from the Discovery set was used to calculate the predicted probability of fibrosis in the Validation set of 38 kidney transplant recipients; 16 with biopsy-confirmed fibrosis and 22 with stable graft function and normal allograft biopsy. Panel C shows the receiver-operating characteristic curve of the composite score (applying the equation from Figure 9D to the urinary cell mRNA levels of vimentin, NKCC2 and E-cadherin and 18S rRNA level of those in the Validation set) for the diagnosis of fibrosis. The area under the curve for the diagnosis of fibrosis in the Validation set was 0.89 (95%CI: 0.78 to 0.99, P<0.0001). At the composite score cutpoint of 4.5 derived from the Discovery set, fibrosis was diagnosed in the Validation set with a specificity of 77.3% (95%CI: 59.8 to 94.8%) and a sensitivity of 87.5% (95%CI: 71.3 to 99.9%). Panel D shows the predicted and observed number of transplant recipients with fibrosis for each sextile of the composite score within the Discovery and Validation sets (from Anglicheau et al. Transplantation 2012, with permission).