Table 2.
Clinical probability estimates utilized in the cost-benefit analysis
| Clinical outcome | Probability | Range | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEP if receiving indomethacin alone | 0.071 | 0.02–0.23 (B)a | This study |
| PEP if receiving PD stent alone | 0.157 | 0.08–0.27 (B) | This study |
| PEP if receiving combination of indomethacin and PD stent | 0.095 | 0.04–0.18 (B) | This study |
| Death as a result of PEP | 0.005 | 0.001–0.01 (B) | 25 |
| Successful PD stent placement | 0.90 | 0.7–1.0 (B) | 12–14 |
| Probability of post-ERCP pancreatitis after failed attempt at PD stent placement | 0.65 | 0.2–0.8 (B) | 15–16 |
| Retained pancreatic stent | 0.15 | 0.05–0.25 (B) | 14–16 |
ERCP, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography; PD, pancreatic duct; PEP, post-ERCP pancreatitis.
a
Beta distribution used to model this parameter in probabilistic sensitivity analysis.