Fig. 2.

The effect of climate scenarios on future malaria distribution: changes in LTS. Each map shows the results for a different emission scenario (RCP). The different hues represent change in LTS between 2069–2099 and 1980–2010 for the ensemble mean of the CMIP5 subensemble. The different saturations represent signal-to-noise ratio (μ/Sigma) across the super ensemble (the noise is defined as one SD within the multi-GCM and multimalaria ensemble). The hatched area shows the multimalaria multi-GCM agreement (60% of the models agree on the sign of changes if the simulated absolute changes are above 1 mo of malaria transmission).