Table 2. Posterior means and standard deviations (in brackets) of variance components, recursive parameters and of Log CPO in Yorkshire, for mortality.

	Model 0a	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3
${\sigma }_{u_y}^2$	0.170 (0.044)	0.165 (0.046)	0.163 (0.045)	0.168 (0.053)
${\sigma }_{p_y}^2$	0.585 (0.051)	0.494 (0.049)	0.484 (0.049)	0.487 (0.053)
λ1		0.121 (0.007)	−0.0094 (0.0362)	−0.191 (0.046)
λ2 × 10−2			0.473 (0.129)	1.943 (0.306)
λ3 × 10−3				−0.371 (0.076)
Log CPO	−6363	−6185	−6181	−6176

^aFor Model 0, ${\sigma }_{{\tilde{u}}_y}^2={\sigma }_{u_y}^2$ and ${\sigma }_{{\tilde{p}}_y}^2={\sigma }_{p_y}^2$.