Figure 1.

Nomogram for predicting overdiagnosis in prostate-specific antigen (PSA)–detected prostate cancer patients. The nomogram is based on a logistic regression model fit to a virtual population of nonmetastatic prostate cancer patients detected by PSA screening in the year 2005. Virtual prostate cancer patients are generated with a competing risks microsimulation model that predicts cancer detection in the presence and absence of PSA screening so that overdiagnosis status is known. The area under the receiver operating curve for the nomogram is 0.75.