Figure 2.

Left: Diagram showing how the output of π̂_1Δ(h₁) depends on Δ_P (clinically significant difference in PANSS) and Δ_B (clinically significant difference in BMI), and on the joint treatment effect, at Phase 1. The cloud of points shows the possible joint treatment effects that can be realized by a single patient with history (panss = −25.5, bmi = −15.6) if the patient follows some feasible decision rule at Phase 2. That is, each point is associated with a different choice of Phase 2 decision rule. Note that for some future decision rules, the point lies in the {−1, 1} region, and for others it lies in the {−1} region; taking the union we have π̂_1Δ(h₁) = {−1, 1} for this patient. Center: Diagram showing how the output of π̂_2Δ(h₂) depends on Δ_P and Δ_B, and on the location of the point (r̂_2P(h₂), r̂_2B(h₂)) for all patients in the Phase 2 Tolerability group. Each plotted point shows the estimated joint treatment effect for a different patient in the dataset. Since Phase 2 is the last phase, there are no future decision rules to consider and each history is associated with a unique joint treatment effect. Right: Analogous plot for the Phase 2 Efficacy group.