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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2014 Mar 17.
Published in final edited form as: Popul Res Policy Rev. 2001 Oct 1;20(5):365–396. doi: 10.1023/A:1013339124837

Table 4.

Population size in year 2000 by demographic scenario, and absolute and relative differences across scenarios, by region. Population and absolute differences in million, relative differences in percent

Projection scenario Region
Total developing world
China Other LDR-East India Other LDR-West Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America & the Caribbean
Population size
Actual demographic change (S0) 1275.2 598.8 1006.0 839.1 617.9 527.3 4864.3
Fertility decline following economic and mortality change, with actual mortality decline (S2) 1534.7 666.0 1061.3 881.9 617.9 644.8 5406.7
Demographic change following economic development (S1) 1356.9 635.6 961.2 798.5 522.4 609.2 4883.9
Difference attributable to faster mortality decline (−S1)
Absolute 177.8 30.4 100.1 83.4 95.5 35.6 522.8
Relative 13.1 4.8 10.4 10.4 18.3 5.8 10.7
Difference attributable to faster fertility decline (S0–S2)
Absolute −259.5 −67.2 −55.3 −42.8 – −117.5 −542.4
Relative −16.9 −10.1 −5.2 −4.9 − −18.2 −10.0

The scenario S1 consists of the mortality assumption M1 and the fertility assumption F1 described in the text. The scenario S2 consists of the mortality rates that prevailed and the fertility assumption F2 also described in the text. The scenario S0 is the projection that replicates prevailing population change using actual mortality and fertility rates.