Table 1. Model goodness of fits.

Model	Description	Prior for	Log marginal likelihood
1-C	no immunity Constant FOI:		−305.3 () −304.3 ()
1-L	no immunity Linear FOI:		−309.3 () −308.9 ()
1-Q	no immunity Quadratic FOI:		−308.1 () −308.3 ()
1-P	no immunity Periodic FOI:		−291.3 () −291.2 ()
2	lifelong immunity periodic FOI:		−294.3 () −294.6 ()
3	transient immunity periodic FOI:		−294.2 () −296.0 ()

All parameters other than have diffuse priors as given in the text. The denotes twice the difference between the best log marginal likelihood and each of the other models.