Table 7.

WAS data analysis. The marginalized and calibrated-conditional frailty–based methods for mutation carrier prediction: ROC-AUC (p-value), and the ratio of observed and expected number of events (95% bootstrap confidence interval). BRCAPRO results under π = 0.01: ROC-AUC=0.718(0.005); O/E=0.66(0.27,1.04); Brier Score=0.0736; under π = 0.02: ROC-AUC=0.719(0.005); O/E=0.48(0.22,0.75); Brier Score=0.0902

π	σ2	Marginalized			Calibrated-Conditional
		ROC-AUC(p-value)	O/E(95% CI)	Brier Score	ROC-AUC(p-value)	O/E(95% CI)	Brier Score
0.01	1.00	0.721(0.005)	1.41(0.66,2.17)	0.0567	0.728(0.004)	0.86(0.35,1.34)	0.0632
	1.50	0.720(0.005)	1.43(0.67,2.19)	0.0567	0.674(0.020)	0.97(0.41,1.50)	0.0599
	2.00	0.721(0.005)	1.44(0.65,2.23)	0.0567	0.663(0.028)	1.15(0.48,1.77)	0.0565
	2.25	0.721(0.005)	1.44(0.66,2.21)	0.0567	0.663(0.028)	1.27(0.52,1.95)	0.0553
	2.50	0.721(0.005)	1.44(0.65,2.22)	0.0567	0.665(0.027)	1.35(0.54,2.10)	0.0548
0.02	1.00	0.721(0.005)	0.81(0.38,1.24)	0.0726	0.728(0.004)	0.59(0.26,0.91)	0.0799
	1.50	0.721(0.005)	0.81(0.39,1.24)	0.0726	0.663(0.028)	0.64(0.29,0.98)	0.0759
	2.00	0.722(0.005)	0.81(0.37,1.25)	0.0728	0.663(0.028)	0.72(0.33,1.10)	0.0717
	2.25	0.721(0.005)	0.81(0.38,1.25)	0.0729	0.663(0.028)	0.78(0.34,1.18)	0.0699
	2.50	0.721(0.005)	0.81(0.37,1.25)	0.0730	0.665(0.026)	0.81(0.35,1.24)	0.0689