Cause
|
Animal Shipments |
Aerosol, fence-line contact, or fomite transmission |
Aerosol, fence-line contact, or fomite transmission |
Spatial Scale
|
All counties in the US |
Premises within an infected county |
All neighboring counties |
Assumptions
|
1) Premises density-dependent; 2)Spatially explicit†; 3)Differs by state and production type |
1) Premises density-dependent; 2)Premises size dependent |
1) Premises density-dependent‡; 2)Premises size dependent‡; 3) Spatially implicit§
|
Informed by or data from
|
1) ICVI records; 2) Number of premises by county and production type¶; 3) State cattle inflows [38]
|
1) 2001 UK FMD outbreak [39]; 2) US premises density and size distributions¶
|
1) 2001 UK FMD outbreak [39]; 2) US premises density and size distributions ¶; 3) Shared county border length |
Parameter Uncertainty
|
Estimated through Bayesian inference and incorporated in the simulations via multiple realizations of shipment networks. |
Broad parameter ranges explored in a sensitivity analysis||. |
Broad parameter ranges explored in a sensitivity analysis||. |