. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2014 Apr 1.

Published in final edited form as: J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg. 2013 Jan 11;145(3):721–729. doi: 10.1016/j.jtcvs.2012.12.026

Table 2. Clinical prediction rules for in-hospital or 30-day mortality (2a. mortality model) and major morbidity (2b. morbidity model): Variables included in predictive models after forward stepwise logistic regression analysis and points assigned for each risk factor present.

Variables in each model	Points	Comparison	p-value	Adjusted Odds ratio^c	95% CI
2a. Mortality

Congestive heart failure^a	5	present vs. absent	0.009	4.740	1.481, 15.172
Pulmonary disease^a	3	present vs. absent	0.009	3.342	1.345, 8.306
Surgery type^b	3	nonelective vs. elective	0.021	3.165	1.193, 8.397
Age 80+ (years)	9	80+ vs. <80	<0.001	8.577	3.043, 24.174

2b. Morbidity

Sex	1	male vs. female	0.122	1.328	0.927, 1.901
Congestive heart failure^a	4	present vs. absent	<0.001	4.267	2.083, 8.737
Pulmonary disease^a	2	present vs. absent	0.015	1.515	1.083, 2.121
Surgery type^b	2	nonelective vs. elective	<0.001	2.142	1.466, 3.128
Age Group (years)
	1	50-59 vs. <50	0.395	1.487	0.596, 3.712
	2	60-69 vs. <50	0.221	1.718	0.722, 4.086
	2	70-79 vs. <50	0.128	1.940	0.826, 4.558
	3	≥80 vs. <50	<0.001	2.689	1.123, 6.441

History of each comorbid disease as defined in the Charlson Comorbidity Index

Non-elective surgery includes urgent and emergent surgery as defined by the Society of Thoracic Surgeons

Adjusted for all other factors in the model

CI – confidence interval; CCI – Charlson Comorbidity Index