Table 5.

BDSIR simulation results (n_S(0) estimated). Computed averages for the effective reproduction number from 100 simulated trees with 100 tips sampled sequentially through time. n_S(0) is estimated in each analysis. For each parameter, the median over the 100 medians/errors/biases/HPD widths/HPD accuracies is provided. The averages for i = 1…10 were computed from the estimated trajectories, , γ and s.

	truth	median	error	bias	relative HPD width	95% HPD accuracy (%)
	2.49	2.64	0.13	0.07	3.10	100.00
	2.48	2.62	0.13	0.08	3.10	100.00
	2.45	2.58	0.14	0.09	3.10	100.00
	2.39	2.47	0.15	0.12	3.08	100.00
	2.25	2.33	0.20	0.19	3.07	100.00
	2.00	2.07	0.34	0.34	3.04	100.00
	1.63	1.70	0.65	0.65	3.06	100.00
	1.23	1.31	1.19	1.19	3.11	100.00
	0.89	0.97	2.05	2.05	3.26	100.00
	0.65	0.75	3.16	3.16	3.47	100.00