Table 2. Hazard ratios for melanoma, squamous cell carcinoma, and basal cell carcinoma according to cumulative UV flux.
No. of cases (%) | Age-adjusted HR (95%CI) | Multivariable HR (95%CI)a | |
---|---|---|---|
Melanoma (n=634 cases) | |||
UV flux Q1b | 88 (14) | 0.66 (0.30, 1.47) | 0.85 (0.36, 2.01) |
UV flux Q2 | 130 (21) | 1.07 (0.58, 1.96) | 1.32 (0.68, 2.55) |
UV flux Q3 | 112 (18) | 0.89 (0.56, 1.41) | 1.02 (0.63, 1.67) |
UV flux Q4 | 129 (20) | 1.01 (0.74, 1.38) | 1.07 (0.78, 1.47) |
UV flux Q5 | 175 (28) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
P for trend | — | 0.68 | 0.77 |
Per 200 × 10−4 RB units increasec |
— |
1.004 (0.966, 1.044) |
0.979 (0.933, 1.028) |
Squamous cell carcinoma (n=1065 cases) | |||
UV flux Q1b | 7 (1) | 0.04 (0.01, 0.29) | 0.05 (0.01, 0.35) |
UV flux Q2 | 69 (6) | 0.29 (0.17, 0.48) | 0.34 (0.20, 0.59) |
UV flux Q3 | 162 (15) | 0.51 (0.37, 0.69) | 0.57 (0.40, 0.79) |
UV flux Q4 | 272 (26) | 0.70 (0.57, 0.85) | 0.74 (0.60, 0.91) |
UV flux Q5 | 555 (52) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
P for trend | — | <0.0001 | <0.0001 |
Per 200 × 10−4 RB units increasec |
— |
1.069 (1.046, 1.092) |
1.072 (1.041, 1.103) |
Basal cell carcinoma (n=15 159 cases) | |||
UV flux Q1b | 152 (1) | 0.41 (0.33, 0.52) | 0.47 (0.37, 0.59) |
UV flux Q2 | 2640 (17) | 0.40 (0.36, 0.44) | 0.45 (0.40, 0.51) |
UV flux Q3 | 3505 (23) | 0.59 (0.54, 0.64) | 0.64 (0.58, 0.70) |
UV flux Q4 | 3819 (25) | 0.81 (0.76, 0.85) | 0.84 (0.79, 0.89) |
UV flux Q5 | 5043 (33) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
P for trend | — | <0.0001 | <0.0001 |
Per 200 × 10−4 RB units increasec | — | 1.052 (1.045, 1.059) | 1.043 (1.034, 1.052) |
Abbreviations: CI=confidence interval; HR=hazard ratio; UV=ultraviolet.
Multivariable analyses adjusted for age, susceptibility to burn, ability to tan, natural hair colour at age 20, number of moles on left arm, family history of melanoma, severe sunburn counts, UV indices at state of residence at birth, 15 and 30 years of age, physical activity level, and rotating night shift.
UV flux quintiles: Q1=200–656, Q2=678–1294, Q3=1296–1872, Q4=1874–2614, and Q5=2616–5392 × 10−4 RB units, respectively.
Cumulative UV flux was modelled as a continuous variable in the models.