Table 3. Multivariable hazard ratiosa for melanoma, squamous cell carcinoma, and basal cell carcinoma with lags of 2–10 years between exposure and outcome.
|
2- year lagb |
4- year lagc |
6-year lagd |
8-year lage |
10-year lagf |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. of cases | Multivariable HR (95% CI) | No. of cases | Multivariable HR (95% CI) | No. of cases | Multivariable HR (95% CI) | No. of cases | Multivariable HR (95% CI) | No. of cases | Multivariable HR (95% CI) | |
|
Melanoma | ||||||||||
| UV flux Q1 | 95 | 0.47 (0.19, 1.19) | 99 | 0.96 (0.38, 2.42) | 81 | 0.62 (0.19, 2.04) | 84 | 0.50 (0.16, 1.55) | 72 | 0.93 (0.33, 2.59) |
| UV flux Q2 | 110 | 0.64 (0.30, 1.34) | 102 | 0.97 (0.47, 1.99) | 96 | 0.83 (0.36, 1.96) | 78 | 0.62 (0.27, 1.45) | 65 | 0.66 (0.29, 1.50) |
| UV flux Q3 | 101 | 0.68 (0.41, 1.15) | 84 | 0.84 (0.48, 1.46) | 76 | 0.76 (0.43, 1.36) | 66 | 0.72 (0.39, 1.34) | 62 | 0.81 (0.45, 1.43) |
| UV flux Q4 | 122 | 0.91 (0.66, 1.25) | 132 | 0.92 (0.66, 1.30) | 120 | 0.91 (0.63, 1.30) | 115 | 0.82 (0.58, 1.18) | 109 | 0.90 (0.62, 1.30) |
| UV flux Q5 | 167 | 1.00 | 139 | 1.00 | 131 | 1.00 | 119 | 1.00 | 106 | 1.00 |
|
P for trend |
|
0.14 |
|
0.74 |
|
0.40 |
|
0.19 |
|
0.61 |
|
Squamous cell carcinoma | ||||||||||
| UV flux Q1 | 13 | 0.12 (0.05, 0.31) | 44 | 0.51 (0.23, 1.12) | 66 | 0.57 (0.21, 1.55) | 83 | 0.22 (0.10, 0.49) | 88 | 0.62 (0.30, 1.29) |
| UV flux Q2 | 91 | 0.34 (0.20, 0.59) | 102 | 0.51 (0.30, 0.87) | 112 | 0.60 (0.33, 1.07) | 114 | 0.43 (0.25, 0.75) | 119 | 0.57 (0.35, 0.92) |
| UV flux Q3 | 174 | 0.64 (0.45, 0.90) | 165 | 0.67 (0.47, 0.94) | 174 | 0.72 (0.51, 1.01) | 168 | 0.40 (0.40, 0.82) | 165 | 0.73 (0.52, 1.03) |
| UV flux Q4 | 264 | 0.78 (0.63, 0.96) | 287 | 0.87 (0.70, 1.09) | 257 | 0.87 (0.69, 1.09) | 248 | 0.72 (0.58, 0.89) | 230 | 0.76 (0.60, 0.95) |
| UV flux Q5 | 518 | 1.00 | 460 | 1.00 | 440 | 1.00 | 407 | 1.00 | 373 | 1.00 |
|
P for trend |
|
0.0004 |
|
0.02 |
|
0.05 |
|
0.0002 |
|
0.01 |
|
Basal cell carcinoma | ||||||||||
| UV flux Q1 | 885 | 0.50 (0.42, 0.60) | 1921 | 0.42 (0.35, 0.49) | 2650 | 0.36 (0.29, 0.44) | 2204 | 0.39 (0.32, 0.48) | 1743 | 0.65 (0.54, 0.78) |
| UV flux Q2 | 2882 | 0.57 (0.50, 0.66) | 2761 | 0.55 (0.48, 0.63) | 2457 | 0.53 (0.46, 0.61) | 2295 | 0.59 (0.51, 0.68) | 2311 | 0.82 (0.71, 0.94) |
| UV flux Q3 | 3293 | 0.79 (0.72, 0.86) | 2838 | 0.74 (0.67, 0.81) | 2779 | 0.77 (0.70, 0.85) | 2367 | 0.77 (0.69, 0.85) | 2102 | 0.87 (0.79, 0.97) |
| UV flux Q4 | 3487 | 0.90 (0.85, 0.96) | 3501 | 0.84 (0.79, 0.90) | 2993 | 0.85 (0.80, 0.91) | 2824 | 0.86 (0.80, 0.92) | 2574 | 0.95 (0.88, 1.02) |
| UV flux Q5 | 4612 | 1.00 | 4137 | 1.00 | 3891 | 1.00 | 3472 | 1.00 | 3092 | 1.00 |
| P for trend | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 0.0001 | |||||
Abbreviations: CI=confidence interval; HR=hazard ratio; UV=ultraviolet.
Multivariable analyses adjusted for age, susceptibility to burn, ability to tan, natural hair colour at age 20, number of moles on left arm, family history of melanoma, severe sunburn counts, UV indices at state of residence at birth, 15 and 30 years of age, physical activity level, and rotating night shift.
UV flux quintiles for 2-year lag analysis: Q1=200–654, Q2=656–1130, Q3=1132–1800, Q4=1802–2484 and Q5=2486–5000 × 10−4 RB units, respectively.
UV flux quintiles for 4-year lag analysis: Q1=200–624, Q2=648–1128, Q3=1130–1638, Q4=1640–2260 and Q5=2262–4608 × 10−4 RB units, respectively.
UV flux quintiles for 6-year lag analysis: Q1=200–580, Q2=600–1038, Q3=1040–1526, Q4=1528–2072 and Q5=2074–4216 × 10−4 RB units, respectively.
UV flux quintiles for 8-year lag analysis: Q1=200–452, Q2=468–904, Q3=906–1384, Q4=1386–1872 and Q5=1874–3824 × 10−4 RB units, respectively.
UV flux quintiles for 10-year lag analysis: Q1=200–436, Q2=452–872, Q3=874–1306, Q4=1308–1742 and Q5=1744–3432 × 10−4 RB units, respectively.