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. 2014 Feb 13;110(7):1834–1840. doi: 10.1038/bjc.2014.63

Table 2. Parameters used in modelling outcomes of low-dose CT screening for lung cancer.

 
 
Estimate
Quantity Source UKLS population NLST population
Risk criterion
Aberle et al (2011), McRonald et al (2014)
⩾5% in 5 years
⩾30 pack-years
Compliance
McRonald et al (2014), hypothesised
30%, 60%
30%, 60%
Eligible (of total)
Aberle et al (2011), McRonald et al (2014)
3%, 5%
6%, 10%
MST (years)
Chien and Chen (2008)
2.06
2.06
CT Sensitivity
Chien and Chen (2008)
97%
97%
FI (screen 1)
Aberle et al (2011)
24%
24%
FI (screen 2+) annual
Aberle et al (2011)
13%
13%
FI (screen 2+) biennial
Aberle et al (2011)
24%
24%
Annual incidence
Aberle et al (2011), McRonald et al (2014)
1.4%
0.6%
Case fatality without screening
http://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/lungb.html
85%
85%
Mortality reduction (annual)
Aberle et al (2011), extrapolated
20%, 27 out of 100 SDC
20%, 27 out of 100 SDC
Mortality reduction (biennial)
Aberle et al (2011), extrapolated
16%, 27 out of 100 SDC
16%, 27 out of 100 SDC
Overdiagnosis Aberle et al (2011), Chien and Chen (2008) 0.11 per SDC 0.11 per SDC

Abbreviations: CT=computed tomography; FI=further diagnostic investigations; MST=mean sojourn time; NLST=National Lung Screening Trial; SDC=screen-detected cancer; UKLS=UK Lung Screening.