Table 2. Parameters used in modelling outcomes of low-dose CT screening for lung cancer.
| |
|
Estimate |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantity | Source | UKLS population | NLST population |
| Risk criterion |
Aberle et al (2011), McRonald et al (2014) |
⩾5% in 5 years |
⩾30 pack-years |
| Compliance |
McRonald et al (2014), hypothesised |
30%, 60% |
30%, 60% |
| Eligible (of total) |
Aberle et al (2011), McRonald et al (2014) |
3%, 5% |
6%, 10% |
| MST (years) |
Chien and Chen (2008) |
2.06 |
2.06 |
| CT Sensitivity |
Chien and Chen (2008) |
97% |
97% |
| FI (screen 1) |
Aberle et al (2011) |
24% |
24% |
| FI (screen 2+) annual |
Aberle et al (2011) |
13% |
13% |
| FI (screen 2+) biennial |
Aberle et al (2011) |
24% |
24% |
| Annual incidence |
Aberle et al (2011), McRonald et al (2014) |
1.4% |
0.6% |
| Case fatality without screening |
http://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/lungb.html |
85% |
85% |
| Mortality reduction (annual) |
Aberle et al (2011), extrapolated |
20%, 27 out of 100 SDC |
20%, 27 out of 100 SDC |
| Mortality reduction (biennial) |
Aberle et al (2011), extrapolated |
16%, 27 out of 100 SDC |
16%, 27 out of 100 SDC |
| Overdiagnosis | Aberle et al (2011), Chien and Chen (2008) | 0.11 per SDC | 0.11 per SDC |
Abbreviations: CT=computed tomography; FI=further diagnostic investigations; MST=mean sojourn time; NLST=National Lung Screening Trial; SDC=screen-detected cancer; UKLS=UK Lung Screening.