Table 3. Estimated outcomes per million population in the target age range, for 10 years of annual or biennial low-dose CT screening, based on the parameters in Table 2, with uncertainty intervals on the deaths prevented and overdiagnosed cancers.
| |
|
UKLS incidence
Compliance |
NLST incidence
Compliance |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Screening frequency | Outcome | 30% | 60% | 30% | 60% |
| Annual |
Eligible and participating |
30 000 |
50 000 |
60 000 |
100 000 |
| |
Prevalence screens |
30 000 |
50 000 |
60 000 |
100 000 |
| |
Prevalence screen cancers |
839 |
1399 |
719 |
1199 |
| |
Incidence screens |
300 000 |
500 000 |
600 000 |
1 000 000 |
| |
Incidence screen cancers |
3318 |
5530 |
2844 |
4740 |
| |
Interval cancers |
882 |
1470 |
756 |
1260 |
| |
Further investigations |
46 200 |
77 000 |
92 400 |
154 000 |
| |
Deaths prevented (ITT) |
857 (291–1144) |
1428 (486–1906) |
734 (250–980) |
1224 (416–1634) |
| |
Deaths prevented (PP) |
956 (325–1276) |
1594 (542–2128) |
819 (278–1093) |
1366 (464–1824) |
| |
Overdiagnosed cancers |
457 (0–748) |
733 (0–1247) |
392 (0–641) |
653 (0–1069) |
| Biennial |
Eligible and participating |
30 000 |
50 000 |
60 000 |
100 000 |
| |
Prevalence screens |
30 000 |
50 000 |
60 000 |
100 000 |
| |
Prevalence screen cancers |
839 |
1399 |
719 |
1199 |
| |
Incidence screens |
150 000 |
250 000 |
300 000 |
500 000 |
| |
Incidence screen cancers |
2646 |
4410 |
2268 |
3780 |
| |
Interval cancers |
1554 |
2590 |
1332 |
2220 |
| |
Further investigations |
43 200 |
72 000 |
86 400 |
144 000 |
| |
Deaths prevented (ITT) |
685 (233–914) |
1142 (388–1525) |
587 (200–784) |
979 (333–1307) |
| |
Deaths prevented (PP) |
802 (273–1071) |
1336 (454–1784) |
687 (234–917) |
1145 (389–1529) |
| Overdiagnosed cancers | 383 (0–627) | 639 (0–1046) | 329 (0–538) | 548 (0–896) | |
Abbreviations: CT=computed tomography; ITT= intent to treat; NLST=National Lung Screening Trial; PP=per protocol; UKLS=UK Lung Screening.