Table 4. Estimated outcomes and uncertainty intervals expressed as screening activity and undesired outcomes per lung cancer death prevented, stratified by incidence of target population, screening frequency and benefit estimate (ITT or PP).
| Screening frequency, benefit estimate | Outcome per death prevented | UKLS incidence | NLST incidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual, ITT |
Persons screened for 10 years |
35 (26–103) |
82 (61–241) |
| |
Screening episodes |
385 (288–1132) |
899 (673–2644) |
| |
Further investigations |
54 (40–159) |
126 (94–371) |
| |
Overdiagnosed cases |
0.5 (0.0–0.9) |
0.5 (0.0–0.9) |
| Annual, PP |
Persons screened for 10 years |
32 (24–94) |
73 (55–215) |
| |
Screening episodes |
345 (258–1015) |
805 (603–2368) |
| |
Further investigations |
48 (36–141) |
113 (85–332) |
| |
Overdiagnosed cases |
0.4 (0.0–0.8) |
0.4 (0.0–0.8) |
| Biennial, ITT |
Persons screened for 10 years |
44 (33–129) |
102 (76–300) |
| |
Screening episodes |
263 (197–774) |
613 (459–1803) |
| |
Further investigations |
63 (47–185) |
147 (110–432) |
| |
Overdiagnosed cases |
0.6 (0.0–1.0) |
0.6 (0.0–1.0) |
| Biennial, PP |
Persons screened for 10 years |
38 (28–112) |
87 (65–256) |
| |
Screening episodes |
224 (168–659) |
525 (393–1544) |
| |
Further investigations |
54 (40–159) |
126 (94–371) |
| Overdiagnosed cases | 0.4 (0.0–0.8) | 0.4 (0.0–0.8) |
Abbreviations: ITT= intent to treat; NLST=National Lung Screening Trial; PP=per protocol; UKLS=UK Lung Screening.