Exhibit A2. Full Regression Models.
| Total Medical Care Expenditure per Beneficiary Year N = 931,455 | Total LTC Expenditure per Beneficiary Year N = 394,333 | Total Expenditure per Beneficiary Year N = 944,822 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parameter | Estimate (log $) | Standard Error | Marginal Mean Medical Care $ | Estimate (log $) | Standard Error | Marginal Mean Medical Care $ | Estimate (log $) | Standard Error | Marginal Mean Medical Care $ |
| Intercept | 7.1959 | 0.0325 | — | 8.8869 | 0.0835 | — | 6.7189 | 0.0467 | — |
| Dual | 1.1623 | 0.0088 | $21,237 | **0.0061 | 0.0056 | $17,849 | 1.3089 | 0.0074 | $26,124 |
| Non-Dual | 0 | 0 | $6,642 | 0 | 0 | $17,739 | 0 | 0 | $7,056 |
| Arkansas | 0.4097 | 0.0008 | $15,107 | −0.1418 | 0.0037 | $13,502 | 0.2525 | 0.0011 | $16,426 |
| Florida | 0.2258 | 0.0030 | $12,569 | 0.5366 | 0.0023 | $26,609 | 0.1108 | 0.0033 | $14,256 |
| Minnesota | 0.0612 | 0.0018 | $10,662 | −0.2315 | 0.0054 | $12,344 | −0.0962 | 0.0018 | $11,590 |
| New Mexico | 0.3901 | 0.0053 | $14,814 | 0.6074 | 0.0078 | $28,561 | 0.3853 | 0.0060 | $18,758 |
| Texas | 0.1665 | 0.0049 | $11,845 | −0.3063 | 0.0084 | $11,454 | 0.0462 | 0.0050 | $13,362 |
| Vermont | −0.0694 | 0.0033 | $9,356 | 0.4749 | 0.0063 | $25,019 | −0.2638 | 0.0039 | $9,802 |
| Washington | 0 | 0 | $10,029 | 0 | 0 | $15,559 | 0 | 0 | $12,760 |
| Female | 0.0455 | 0.0085 | $12,150 | −0.0305 | 0.0046 | $17,525 | 0.0472 | 0.0087 | $13,902 |
| Male | 0 | 0 | $11,610 | 0 | 0 | $18,068 | 0 | 0 | $13,261 |
| Non-White | −0.1377 | 0.0153 | $11,087 | −0.2178 | 0.0359 | $15,958 | −0.1699 | 0.0163 | $12,473 |
| White | 0 | 0 | $12,723 | 0 | 0 | $19,841 | 0 | 0 | $14,781 |
| Urban | −0.2336 | 0.0009 | $10,568 | 0.0766 | 0.0094 | $18,488 | −0.1709 | 0.0017 | $12,465 |
| Rural | 0 | 0 | $13,348 | 0 | 0 | $17,125 | 0 | 0 | $14,788 |
| Age | 0.0207 | 0.0005 | — | 0.0104 | 0.0012 | — | 0.0288 | 0.0006 | — |
| Intercept | 7.4267 | 0.0100 | — | 8.7862 | 0.1033 | — | 6.6197 | 0.0120 | — |
| Dual | 0.3982 | 0.0083 | $13,703 | *−0.0324 | 0.0133 | $18,068 | 0.6740 | 0.0094 | $18,130 |
| Non-Dual | 0 | 0 | $9,202 | 0 | 0 | $18,663 | 0 | 0 | $9,240 |
| Arkansas | **–0.0025 | 0.0027 | $10,682 | –0.1660 | 0.0100 | $13,725 | –0.1393 | 0.0029 | $11,967 |
| Florida | 0.1809 | 0.0012 | $12,831 | 0.5080 | 0.0056 | $26,927 | 0.0622 | 0.0013 | $14,638 |
| Minnesota | –0.0307 | 0.0033 | $10,384 | –0.2227 | 0.0037 | $12,969 | –0.1802 | 0.0031 | $11,486 |
| New Mexico | 0.3134 | 0.0011 | $14,649 | 0.6162 | 0.0086 | $30,007 | 0.3324 | 0.0009 | $19,180 |
| Washington | 0 | 0 | $10,708 | 0 | 0 | $16,204 | 0 | 0 | $13,756 |
| Female | 0.1615 | 0.0005 | $12,175 | *−0.0190 | 0.0067 | $18,190 | 0.145 | 0.0005 | $13,916 |
| Male | 0 | 0 | $10,359 | 0 | 0 | $18,538 | 0 | 0 | $12,037 |
| Non-White | −0.1578 | 0.0050 | $10,378 | −0.2192 | 0.0337 | $16,457 | −0.2093 | 0.0045 | $11,656 |
| White | 0 | 0 | $12,151 | 0 | 0 | $20,490 | 0 | 0 | $14,370 |
| Urban | −0.3111 | 0.0033 | $9,612 | 0.0754 | 0.0102 | $19,069 | −0.2211 | 0.0038 | $11,588 |
| Rural | 0 | 0 | $13,119 | 0 | 0 | $17,684 | 0 | 0 | $14,455 |
| Age | 0.0078 | 0.0001 | — | 0.0108 | 0.0013 | — | 0.0210 | 0.0001 | — |
| Case Mix Score | 0.2777 | 0.0027 | — | 0.0175 | 0.0041 | — | 0.2537 | 0.0028 | — |
| Intercept | 8.0231 | 0.0312 | — | 10.7 | 0.0684 | — | 8.0614 | 0.0383 | — |
| Dual | 0.8683 | 0.0287 | $26,334 | −0.0931 | 0.0110 | $14,846 | 0.7927 | 0.0315 | $31,210 |
| Non-Dual | 0 | 0 | $11,051 | 0 | 0 | $16,295 | 0 | 0 | $14,126 |
| Arkansas | 0.4965 | 0.0363 | $20,451 | −0.4262 | 0.0944 | $11,035 | 0.4120 | 0.0410 | $24,265 |
| Florida | 0.4052 | 0.0255 | $18,667 | **0.024 | 0.0609 | $17,309 | 0.3587 | 0.0289 | $23,006 |
| Minnesota | 0.2019 | 0.0112 | $15,231 | **−0.1081 | 0.0789 | $15,169 | 0.1397 | 0.0173 | $18,479 |
| New Mexico | 0.5481 | 0.0163 | $21,534 | 0.5335 | 0.0966 | $28,811 | 0.5313 | 0.0198 | $27,337 |
| Texas | *0.0412 | 0.0130 | $12,971 | −0.4441 | 0.0710 | $10,840 | *−0.0427 | 0.0151 | $15,400 |
| Vermont | 0.5136 | 0.0324 | $20,804 | *−0.1600 | 0.0561 | $14,402 | 0.4728 | 0.0353 | $25,786 |
| Washington | 0 | 0 | $12,448 | 0 | 0 | $16,901 | 0 | 0 | $16,070 |
| Female | **−0.0242 | 0.0128 | $16,855 | 0.0819 | 0.0155 | $16,204 | **−0.0178 | 0.0143 | $20,810 |
| Male | 0 | 0 | $17,268 | 0 | 0 | $14,930 | 0 | 0 | $21,186 |
| Non-White | −0.0750 | 0.0046 | $16,432 | 0.0820 | 0.0088 | $16,205 | −0.0698 | 0.0059 | $20,278 |
| White | 0 | 0 | $17,712 | 0 | 0 | $14,930 | 0 | 0 | $21,744 |
| Age | 0.0044 | 0.0001 | −0.0036 | 0.0002 | 0.0053 | 0.0001 | |||
| Medicaid Community LTC | 1.6254 | 0.0145 | $39,195 | −1.4030 | 0.0657 | $7,713 | 1.7660 | 0.0153 | $46,976 |
| Medicaid Institutional LTC | 1.1529 | 0.0221 | $24,436 | 0 | 0 | $31,370 | 1.7518 | 0.0277 | $46,309 |
| Medicare Only | 0.3960 | 0.0411 | $11,464 | — | — | — | 0.3255 | 0.0438 | $11,123 |
| Medicaid No LTC | 0 | 0 | $7,715 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | $8,033 |
| Intercept | 7.3521 | 0.0285 | — | 10.6722 | 0.0534 | 7.5101 | 0.0293 | — | |
| Dual | 0.7949 | 0.0257 | $18,598 | −0.1013 | 0.0155 | $14,892 | 0.6538 | 0.0271 | $23,832 |
| Non-Dual | 0 | 0 | $8,399 | 0 | 0 | $16,480 | 0 | 0 | $12,394 |
| Arkansas | 0.0609 | 0.0087 | $11,749 | −0.4311 | 0.0907 | $11,061 | **−0.0107 | 0.0109 | $15,748 |
| Florida | 0.2467 | 0.0096 | $14,148 | **0.0206 | 0.0584 | $17,377 | 0.2115 | 0.0108 | $19,667 |
| Minnesota | **0.0124 | 0.0093 | $11,193 | **−0.1053 | 0.0724 | $15,320 | −0.0534 | 0.0120 | $15,090 |
| New Mexico | 0.3985 | 0.0079 | $16,467 | 0.5345 | 0.0940 | $29,051 | 0.3930 | 0.0089 | $23,583 |
| Texas | −0.2910 | 0.0074 | $8,263 | −0.4448 | 0.0726 | $10,911 | −0.3803 | 0.0081 | $10,882 |
| Vermont | 0.4315 | 0.0095 | $17,019 | *−0.1552 | 0.0518 | $14,576 | 0.3765 | 0.0095 | $23,195 |
| Washington | 0 | 0 | $11,055 | 0 | 0 | $17,023 | 0 | 0 | $15,918 |
| Female | 0.1099 | 0.0054 | $13,204 | 0.0828 | 0.0169 | $16,327 | 0.0990 | 0.0055 | $18,059 |
| Male | 0 | 0 | $11,830 | 0 | 0 | $15,030 | 0 | 0 | $16,357 |
| Non-White | −0.0833 | 0.0018 | $11,988 | 0.0818 | 0.0091 | $16,319 | −0.0712 | 0.0018 | $16,586 |
| White | 0 | 0 | $13,030 | 0 | 0 | $15,037 | 0 | 0 | $17,810 |
| Urban | −0.2706 | 0.0051 | $10,916 | **−0.0049 | 0.0229 | $15,628 | −0.2475 | 0.0050 | $15,186 |
| Rural | 0 | 0 | $14,308 | 0 | 0 | $15,704 | 0 | 0 | $19,452 |
| Age | −0.0011 | 0.0002 | — | −0.0034 | 0.0001 | — | *0.0008 | 0.0002 | — |
| Case Mix Score | 0.2634 | 0.0047 | — | **0.0029 | 0.0037 | — | 0.2342 | 0.0052 | — |
| Medicaid Community LTC | 1.1641 | 0.0113 | $21,280 | −1.3952 | 0.0613 | $7,798 | 1.4121 | 0.0128 | $29,337 |
| Medicaid Institutional LTC | 0.4689 | 0.0158 | $10,618 | 0 | 0 | $31,470 | 1.3897 | 0.0172 | $28,684 |
| Medicare Only | 0.8947 | 0.0330 | $16,254 | — | — | — | 0.7081 | 0.0357 | $14,509 |
| Medicaid No LTC | 0 | 0 | $6,644 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | $7,147 |
NOTE: All estimates are significant at p <.0001
*
significant at.0001< p <.05
**
not significant at p>0.05
SOURCE: Authors’ analyses.