. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2014 Dec 1.

Published in final edited form as: Ophthalmology. 2013 Oct 10;120(12):2644–2655. doi: 10.1016/j.ophtha.2013.07.053

Table 8. Prediction Models in the Literature.

Author	Year	Study Population/ Design	Noncases/ Cases	Follow-up	Prediction Model Variables				AUC	Sensitivity	Specificity	Validation in Independent Dataset?	Remarks

					Demographic	Environmental	Genetic	Ocular
Gold et al¹⁴	2006	Case-control	114/350				CFH, C2/CB			0.74	0.56	Yes
Hughes et al¹⁷	2007	Case-control	266/401			Smoking	CFH, ARMS2					No	Risk score only CNV case
Jakobsdottir et al¹⁸	2008	Case-control and family cohort	168/187; 1095/429		Age, sex	Smoking	CFH, ARMS2, C2/FB			0.70	0.74	No
Jakobsdottir et al¹⁹	2009	Case-control and family cohort	168/187; 1095/429				CFH, ARMS2, C2/FB		0.79			No
Seddon et al²³	2009	AREDS, RCT	1167/279	6.3 yrs	Age, sex	Education, smoking, BMI, antioxidant/zinc or both	CFH, ARMS2, C2/FB, C3	Baseline grade	0.822	0.83	0.68	No
Reynolds et al²²	2009	Case-control	60/110		Age, sex	Smoking, BMI, action fragments	CFH, ARMS2, C2/FB, C3, CFI		0.94			No
Gibson et al¹³	2010	Case-control	470/470		Age, sex	Smoking	CFH, ARMS2, C3, SERPING1		0.83	0.76	0.76	No
McKay et al²¹	2010	Case-control	436/437		Age	Smoking	CFH, ARMS2, C2/FB, C3		0.86			No
Zanke et al²⁸	2010	Risks from literature	NA			Smoking	CFH, ARMS2, C3, mtA4917G					No
Chen et al¹²	2011	AREDS (723), case-control (1121)	509/1335		Age, sex	Smoking, BMI	CFH, ARMS2, C2/FB, C3		0.82	0.755	0.747	No
Hageman et al¹⁶	2011	Case-control	467/482				CFH, ARMS2, C2/FB, C3, CFHR4, CFHR5, F13B		0.80	0.82	0.63	Yes	Only CNV cases
Klein et al²⁰	2011	AREDS, RCT	2034/688	9.3 yrs	Age	Family history, smoking	CFH, ARMS2	Baseline grade, drusen presence, advanced AMD in other eye	0.872^†			Yes
Seddon et al²⁴	2011	AREDS, RCT	2118/819	9.2 yrs	Age, sex	Education, smoking, BMI, antioxidant	CFH, ARMS2, C2/FB, C3	Drusen size, advanced AMD in other eye	0.908^* 0.876^†			No
Spencer et al²⁵	2011	Case-control	216/349		Age	Smoking	CFH, ARMS2, C2/FB, C3		0.84	0.770	0.741	Yes	Outcome is early and late AMD
Spencer et al²⁵	2011	Nested case-control	148/85		Age	Smoking	CFH, ARMS2, C2/FB, C3			0.633	0.707	Yes	Outcome is early and late AMD
Ying et al²⁶	2011	CAPT, trial	618/324	5 yrs	Age	Smoking, hypertension	…	Baseline grade, night vision score	0.68			No	Only GA cases
Grassmann et al¹⁵	2012	Case-control	786/986				CFH, ARMS2, C2/FB, LIPC, APOE, PLA2G12A, TIMP3		0.813			No
Yu et al²⁷	2012	AREDS, RCT	1112/1448	10.3 yrs	Age, sex	Education, smoking, BMI, antioxidant	CFH, ARMS2, C2/FB, C3, CFI, LIPC, CFI, LIPC, TIMP3, CETP ABCA1, COL8A1, APOE	Fellow eye status	0.895^* 0.883^†			No	Outcome is early and late AMD

AMD = age-related macular degeneration; AREDS = Age-Related Eye Disease Study; AUC = area under the curve; BMI = body mass index; randomized controlled trial.

Based on 10-year follow-up.

^†

Based on 5-year follow-up.