Table 4.

Multilevel logistic models for categorical girls' smoking outcomes, MCMC^a estimation, odds ratios and credible intervals.

Fixed effects	Tried smoking	Current smoking	Weekly smoking	Daily smoking
Age	1.63 (1.06, 2.53)d	1.14 (0.83, 1.56)	1.50 (1.14, 1.98)d	1.14 (0.72, 1.82)
Family Affluence Scale (Ref: High FAS)
Medium FAS	1.20 (0.90, 1.60)	1.43 (0.96, 2.12)	1.44 (0.94, 2.19)	1.42 (0.88, 2.29)
Low FAS	1.29 (0.96, 1.73)	1.70 (1.15, 2.52)d	1.59 (1.04, 2.43)d	1.52 (0.94, 2.44)
Deprivation (Ref: SIMDb 5 (least deprived))
SIMD 4	1.35 (0.95, 1.93)	1.21 (0.77, 1.92)	1.30 (0.76, 2.22)	1.56 (0.82, 2.96)
SIMD 3	1.55 (1.06, 2.26)d	1.72 (1.08, 2.76)d	2.05 (1.20, 3.49)d	2.33 (1.24, 4.38)d
SIMD 2	1.88 (1.23, 2.88)d	1.93 (1.14, 3.24)d	2.10 (1.16, 3.79)d	3.00 (1.51, 5.93)d
SIMD 1 (most deprived)	1.72 (1.05, 2.81)d	2.30 (1.25, 4.22)d	3.14 (1.63, 6.05)d	4.61 (2.18, 9.75)d
School type (ref: State school)
Independent school	1.36 (0.55, 3.38)	2.07 (0.75, 5.73)	1.31 (0.42, 4.07)	–
Rurality (Ref: 4 Cities)
Other urban	1.45 (0.92, 2.27)	1.61 (0.94, 2.77)	1.33 (0.74, 2.37)	1.62 (0.82, 3.19)
Accessible towns	1.93 (1.15, 3.24)d	1.36 (0.71, 2.61)	1.28 (0.65, 2.54)	1.83 (0.85, 3.94)
Remote towns	2.48 (1.40, 4.39)d	1.52 (0.77, 2.99)	1.02 (0.48, 2.17)	1.64 (0.72, 3.73)
Accessible rural	1.44 (0.90, 2.30)	1.64 (0.91, 2.94)	1.53 (0.80, 2.92)	2.58 (1.24, 5.36)d
Remote rural	2.10 (1.29, 3.43)d	2.66 (1.50, 4.73)d	2.29 (1.25, 4.20)d	3.00 (1.48, 6.08)d
Random effects
Level 1 (child) variancec	1	1	1	1
Level 2 (school) variance	0.330 (0.126)	0.299 (0.162)	0.184 (0.158)	0.055 (0.095)
Level 3 (Education authority) variance	0.062 (0.075)	0.055 (0.077)	0.059 (0.079)	0.131 (0.143)

^aVia Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC); estimates are based on a chain of length of 50,000 following a burn-in of 15,000.

^bSIMD income domain.

^cVariance at the child level is constrained to 1.

^d95% Confidence Intervals are above or below 1.