Figure 3. Seasonal baseline (solid line) and upper limit of the 95% confidence interval (dashed line).

The observed number of leptospirosis cases in each month is shown for 2007–2012. Blue circles indicate months that had been forecasted to be below the epidemic threshold and red crosses indicate months where the forecast predicted an epidemic. When the red crosses are above the 95% confidence interval, this indicates that the forecast had correctly predicted an epidemic intensity in that month.