Table 1. Association between monthly leptospirosis cases and El Niño and meteorological variables, controlling for 12-month harmonic variation.

Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)	Predictor variables
831.8	Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), 3-month lag
833.5	Sea surface temp. anomaly (box 4), 4-month lag
837.8	Sea surface temp. anomaly (box 3. 4), 3-month lag
850.0	Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), 4-month lag
859.8	Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), 4-month lag
870.7	Rainfall Poindimie, cumulative over previous 8 months
883.4	Rainfall Bourail, cumulative over previous 7 months
887.3	Rainfall Ponerihouen, cumulative over previous 7 months
890.9	Mean maximum temp. Poindimie, unlagged
893.2	Mean maximum temp. Bourail, 4 month lag
897.4	Mean maximum temp Ponerihouen, 5-month lag
898.0	Baseline model (No climate or El Niño variables)

Selected single predictor models. Smaller values of BIC signify a better fit to the data. All lags between 0 and 6 months were tested for each variable. For the cumulative sum variables, all ranges from the previous 0 to 9 months were tested. Only the lag or cumulative sum with the lowest BIC score for each variable is presented here. A difference in the BIC scores of greater than 2 is considered to be important. All of the models include sine and cosine terms with a 12-month period. For the full table of results, see Supporting Table S3.