Table 1.

Mean values for olive yield, olive fly infestation, and profit in the different subregions of the Mediterranean Basin (see map of subregions in SI Appendix, Fig. S9) for years 1961–1970 under the baseline climate scenario (“base”) and for years 2041–2050 under the A1B scenario of 1.8 °C climate warming

	Olive yield, t ha−1			Olive fly infestation, % fruit infested			Profit, € ha−1
Zone	Obs.	A1B	ΔCV	Base	A1B	ΔIQR	Base	A1B	ΔIQR
Portugal, Spain	1.51	1.71***	−9.9	50.7	51.4	0.4	674.3	790.3***	−16.3
France, Italy	2.14	2.37***	−11.4	58.7	64.6***	−5.6	2,179.0	2,398.0***	−111.6
Croatia, Albania, Greece, Turkey, Cyprus	2.20	2.38***	−23.1	57.8	45.5***	−5.8	2,235.0	2,491.1***	−168.9
Egypt, Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria	3.40	3.08***	3.8	31.2	16.7***	−0.3	1,789.7	1,661.3***	94.1
Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya	1.22	1.23	1.2	47.7	28.5***	0.3	209.6	295.8***	3.7
Overall Basin	1.88	1.96***	−6.9	49.6	41.5***	−1.6	1,161.5	1,272.8***	−32.9

Welch’s two-sample t test for A1B vs. observed or baseline: *** for P < 0.001 otherwise P ≥ 0.05. “Obs.” stands for observed yields (i.e., Y_obs). Mean changes in variability resulting from climate warming in the different subregions are indicated for yield as the difference in the coefficient of variation (ΔCV = CV_+1.8 – CV₀), and for olive fly infestation and profit as the difference in the interquartile range (ΔIQR = IQR_+1.8 – IQR₀) (SI Appendix, SI Materials and Methods).