Table 3.
Negative binomial regression model of meteorological factors associated with risk of scrub typhus incidence in Guangzhou, southern China, 2006–2012*
| β | S.E. | P | Percent increase = (eβ − 1)*100 |
95% CI for percent increase (%) |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower boundary | Upper boundary | |||||
|
(A) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Intercept |
−530.11 |
28.42 |
0.00 |
– |
– |
– |
| Aggregate sunshine |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.14 |
0.03 |
0.25 |
| Aggregate rainfall |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.03 |
0.08 |
| Average wind velocity |
0.09 |
0.05 |
0.08 |
9.15 |
−0.92 |
20.25 |
| Average relative humidity |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.33 |
−0.45 |
−1.33 |
0.45 |
| Average temperature |
0.15 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
15.61 |
14.00 |
17.24 |
| Year |
0.26 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
30.20 |
26.62 |
33.88 |
|
(B) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Intercept |
−307.62 |
26.69 |
0.00 |
– |
– |
– |
| Aggregate sunshine |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.40 |
0.29 |
0.50 |
| Aggregate rainfall |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.08 |
0.06 |
0.11 |
| Average wind velocity |
−0.19 |
0.05 |
0.06 |
−17.20 |
−24.16 |
122.77 |
| Average relative humidity |
−0.01 |
0.03 |
0.17 |
−1.32 |
−2.33 |
102.00 |
| Average atmospheric pressure |
−0.10 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
−9.36 |
−10.38 |
−8.34 |
| Year |
0.20 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
22.70 |
19.47 |
26.02 |
|
(C) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Intercept |
−540.03 |
18.48 |
0.00 |
– |
– |
– |
| Aggregate sunshine |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.17 |
0.08 |
0.26 |
| Aggregate rainfall |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
0.02 |
0.08 |
| Average temperature |
0.14 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
14.98 |
13.65 |
16.33 |
| Year |
0.27 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
30.84 |
28.50 |
33.22 |
|
(D) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Intercept |
−184.32 |
20.37 |
0.00 |
– |
– |
– |
| Aggregate sunshine |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.54 |
0.47 |
0.62 |
| Aggregate rainfall |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
0.07 |
0.12 |
| Average atmospheric pressure |
−0.08 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
−8.03 |
−8.75 |
−7.31 |
| Year | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 14.46 | 12.42 | 16.54 |
Note. *Negative binomial regression model for monthly scrub typhus incidence without atmospheric pressure (A) and without average temperature (B). Final models without atmospheric pressure (C) and without average temperature (D).
CI = Confidence interval, S.E. = Standard error.