Figure 1.

Comparison of the probability function (equations (14) and (15)) with results from simulated disease data. For details regarding simulation parameters see paragraph “Derivation of a genetic-epidemiological probability function“; data points: proportion of infected individuals for a given class of Λ_j(t) using equation (15) with class size 0.02; curve: expected probability of becoming infected by time t following equations (14) and (15); panels: a. SIR model with variation in susceptibility and infectivity only, b. SIR model with variation in recovery rate, and c. SLIRS model.